Handicapping the first NBA playoff game inevitably involves some guesswork, given the stakes and magnitude will certainly impact the outcome.
Historically, coaches shorten their benches in the postseason to play starters additional minutes. Plus, defense often intensifies and offensive possessions become more measured.
On top of that, Saturday’s opener between the Bucks and Pacers adds another element because Milwaukee has adjusted its style the last few games. I believe this creates prop betting opportunity.
All-Star guard Damian Lillard has been out since March 18 with deep vein thrombosis in his right calf. Coach Doc Rivers said Lillard is off blood-thinning medication and increasing basketball activity but he is reportedly expected to miss the series opener.
During this stretch without Lillard, Rivers has started guard Ryan Rollins, but the offensive rotations and game plan have changed drastically depending on the availability of a certain reserves.
Key role player Bobby Portis recently returned from a 25-game suspension for testing positive for the painkiller Tramadol and has only played three games. I believe those three games are the best example of what we can expect in Game 1 in Indiana.
One was a blowout with the bench deepening in garbage time, thereby rendering it an outlier. In the other two, Rivers only played four reserves and limited Rollins to a total of 40 minutes. Consequently, the Bucks ran their offense through Giannis Antetokounmpo and he effectively played the role of point forward.
The two-time MVP finished with 10 assists and 15 assists in those two games. Additionally, according to NBA.com advanced stats, he had a combined 37 potential assists. Rivers surrounded him with capable shooters and forced the defense to pick its poison.
Even before Portis returned, Antetokounmpo was racking up double-digit assists. Overall, he has done so in five of his last six games with the lone exception being that blowout victory over the Pelicans in which he only played 26 minutes.
During this stretch, Antetokounmpo ranks second in the NBA with 20.2 potential assists. At the top of the list are main ball handlers Trae Young, Tyrese Haliburton and Josh Giddey. Antetokounmpo has replaced Lillard as the focal point and Rivers is trusting his star to make the right decisions.
Betting on the NBA?
- Check out the best NBA betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on basketball
The Pacers likely will be prepared but they rank 15th in defensive efficiency. The defense may improve for a playoff game but ultimately this team will not have many answers. Of course, there is always the risk of missed shots or Antetokounmpo creating the open shot through a “hockey assist” but all bets have risks and unknowns.
I am 37-25-1 ATS in this Post sports section (entering Friday night’s selection of Mavericks +6.5) and believe Antetokounmpo Over 7.5 assists is an excellent wager.
