Most of the sports world will be focused on the College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl Thursday night, but a there’s a drawing NBA matchup in store: The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Cleveland Cavaliers Thursday in the first game of a home-and-home set.
Vibes can shift pretty quickly in the association, but right now, both the Cavaliers and Timberwolves look to be on the upswing.
The Cavs have won four of five games, including consecutive wins against the Spurs, Suns and Nuggets. The Wolves also won four of five with a plus-15 point differential in those games.
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves odds, prediction
The Cavaliers are nearly at full strength, but still await the debut of Max Strus who has been out since the summer with a foot injury.
Darius Garland, who has fought through a toe injury all season, is showing progress over the past 10 games averaging 20 points on 50/40/90 splits over that stretch. Donovan Mitchell is day-to-day after resting in the Cavs’ last game — a big reason why the line isn’t out yet — but the team is rounding into form after a slow start.
On Minnesota’s side, it has been all about Anthony Edwards, who has taken another leap this season. Edwards is posting career-highs in scoring (29 points per game) and shooting (50 percent from the field, 40 percent from beyond the arc) while making it look effortless on a nightly basis.
The Cavaliers have been stellar defensively during this stretch, but will have a hard time containing Edwards with the way he’s been playing. Conversely, the Wolves are good at taking away the 3-point line and 3-point shots make up about 42 percent of the Cavs’ attempts, fourth-highest mark in the league.
If the Cavs try to get the ball inside, they’ll go up against Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Naz Reid who anchor a defense allowing the fourth-lowest percentage at the rim in the NBA and the sixth-most.
The Cavaliers have played some tough teams in this recent stretch, but I like the Wolves here to cover the spread. I expect this line to come in somewhere between 4-5.5 points with the Wolves as home favorites and would take the Wolves to cover up to -6.
The Play: Timberwolves -3 (-110, FanDuel)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
