What a difference a year makes.
Last January, the world was baffled at the concept of Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. Now, everyone is afraid to lay points even though he’s 15-1 as a starter this season.
Obviously, there’s a giant difference between being an underdog and laying points, but the overarching narrative is that the Chiefs are lucky and escaping defeat.
But does that carry over into the playoffs? What if Kansas City has found its groove, considering Mahomes has won and covered three straight starts?
I’m in no rush to take the Texans at +8.5. They have too many flaws for me to back this shaky team against Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium. In fact, I’d lay the points before I take them.
However, I think the best approach is wagering on the Chiefs in a teaser, which moves the spread from 8.5 to 2.5 points. Obviously, you need another leg to complete the teaser, and I think the Lions at -2.5 or even Ohio State at -2.5 against Notre Dame are strong options.
What burns many chalk bettors is when the wager does not align well with the team’s actual objective. In this case, Kansas City is just trying to win and advance, rather than win by nine or more points. However, using the Chiefs in a teaser aligns the wager with the Chiefs’ goal much better.
Betting on the NFL?
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
- Check out the best NFL betting sites
- Get the BetMGM Bonus Code
Mahomes has not played since Christmas Day, which was over three weeks ago. I only slightly worry about rust, given Kansas City is conditioned for this stage. I genuinely believe they played the long game during the regular season, which is what led to those “lucky” performances.
I am optimistic we see the version that has won back-to-back Super Bowls. And aligning my wager with a win is the safest and smartest route.
