Just when it felt like the College Football Playoff picture was starting to get settled, it got blown up.
At this time last week, it felt like Alabama was a safe bet to make the dance, but a loss to Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa has put the Crimson Tide under some pressure. They’ve got Eastern Illinois on deck this week, but a must-win Iron Bowl awaits the Tide in Week 14.
Oklahoma’s win vaulted its prospects of making the Playoff from long shot to coin-flip territory, which is bad news for the likes of Notre Dame, Utah, BYU, Miami, Vanderbilt, and Georgia Tech.
Adding even more confusion to all of this is the fact that there are 19 Power 4 teams still mathematically alive to win their respective conference.
The only conference that seems straightforward is the Big Ten, where Ohio State seems to be on a collision course with Indiana. But that game will almost certainly be largely ceremonial, as the loser of the Big Ten Championship will almost certainly get an at-large bid.
Ohio State and Indiana are two of four teams, along with Texas A&M and Georgia, that boast a 99 percent chance of going to the College Football Playoff, per ESPN’s model.
Two other teams, Texas Tech and Ole Miss, are essentially locks at 91 and 89 percent, respectively.
The bubble teams (except for BYU and Utah) will be rooting like crazy for Texas Tech to win the Big 12 Championship, because a win over West Virginia in Week 14 would lock up an at-large bid for the Red Raiders, even if they fall in the title game.
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One of the so-called bubble teams, Notre Dame, is going to be hard to leave out of the picture if it takes care of business against Syracuse and Stanford. Notre Dame is -2500 at DraftKings to make the Playoff, and the fourth-favorite to win the national championship.
When you sort through all of this, the likeliest scenario is that there are three at-large bids up for grabs and over a dozen teams with their sights set on one of them.
And it may be wiser to assume it’s just two spots. Alabama is going to be a big favorite over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and while the Tigers are dangerous, the Tide have been on a completely different level compared to their in-state rival this season.
That leaves two spots among many worthy candidates, including a 100/1 shot that has a real path to the Playoff, and more importantly, the upside to make a run if it gets in.
USC may be the most underrated unit in the country. According to SP+, the Trojans grade out as the 13th-best team in FBS, powered by the sixth-best attack. The defense lags behind, but it’s still a top-40 unit by most metrics, and that’s good enough to play a supporting role behind Jayden Maiava and the high-flying offense.
For USC, the calculus is pretty simple. If the Trojans beat Oregon on the road on Saturday, they will likely get into the Playoff at Oregon’s expense. A win over UCLA in Week 14 will also be required, but the Trojans should have no issues there.
An early loss to Illinois seemed to cast the Trojans as outsiders, but the Illini are no shrinking violets, and USC’s only other defeat came on the road against Notre Dame. Wins over Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, and hypothetically, Oregon, would be enough to not only get the Trojans an invite but also prove that they’re one of the best outfits in the sport.
USC is +300 to get into the Playoff (you can just play the moneyline against Oregon instead), which is fine value, but the 100/1 at BetMGM to win the national championship is an eye-popper.
That number will tank if the Trojans stun the Ducks on Saturday.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
