Arizona State’s 3-0 start is buoyed by fourth-down (5-for-6) and turnover (+6 margin) luck.
The overvalued Sun Devils likely would’ve lost to Texas State last week if not for three costly Bobcat turnovers.
Conversely, Texas Tech is likely undervalued after a flukey blowout loss to Washington State in Week 2.
The Red Raiders outgained the Cougars by nearly 100 yards but were terrorized by four turnovers and a 1-for-5 performance on fourth down.
While Cam Skattebo is among the best running backs in the nation, I still don’t believe in Sam Leavitt and the Sun Devil passing attack, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally in EPA per Dropback.
That will hurt Saturday, given Texas Tech’s secondary is far more vulnerable than its front seven.
Similarly, I still don’t believe in Arizona State’s secondary, which ranks 87th nationally in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades and 97th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
That will be a problem Saturday, given Zach Kittley runs an explosive pass-first offense, and Behran Morton looks excellent in the early going (66 percent completion, 974 yards, 10 touchdowns, two interceptions).
Pick: Texas Tech -3.5.
Rutgers (+3.5) over VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies have an excellent defensive line, which fuels Brent Pry’s aggressive, Havoc-minded pass defense.
But Greg Schiano’s team is built to withstand pressure.
The Scarlet Knights are consistently among the top offenses in Havoc allowed, churning out rush-heavy, ball-protecting offenses with veteran offensive lines.
If you can withstand the Hokies’ pressure, you can exploit their leaky rush defense — Virginia Tech ranks 94th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed.
Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt’s hybrid triple-option amassed 180 rushing yards against the Hokies in a monster Week 1 upset.
I believe Athan Kaliakmanis, Kyle Monangai and Rutgers can do something similar.
Conversely, Virginia Tech’s offense doesn’t look as consistent or dynamic as expected.
The Hokies aren’t creating enough sustained down-to-down offense (ranking 95th nationally in Success Rate), instead depending entirely on Kyron Drones’ deep shots (ranking fifth in Explosiveness).
That won’t work against Rutgers, which fields an elite, experienced secondary that ranks among the top 15 units in EPA per Dropback allowed, Pass Success Rate allowed and Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades.
Utah (-2.5) over OKLAHOMA STATE
Cam Rising will suit up on Saturday in Stillwater, which should be enough for the Utes to score a Big 12 road win.
While I was exceedingly high on the Cowboys entering the year, I’m worried about them following an inconsistent effort against Arkansas in Week 2.
They won after a wild double-overtime comeback, but they should’ve lost, given the Hogs dropped 650 yards of total offense while holding the Pokes to 380.
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Taylen Green gashed Oklahoma State’s secondary (8.5 yards per dropback), and the Razorback defensive line overwhelmed reigning Doak Award winner Ollie Gordon (49 yards on 17 carries, 2.9 YPC, 24% Success Rate), turning Oklahoma State’s strength into a weakness.
If the Cowboys can’t run the ball against Arkansas, they should have an even worse time against Utah.
And if the Cowboys can’t stop Green, they should have an even worse time against Rising.
Last week: 1-2. LSU (L), Washington (L), Indiana (W)
2024 season: 3-6.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
