Over 20 teams can claim they have a path to the College Football Playoff with two weeks to go in the regular season.
The first season with the 12-team playoff hasn’t lacked for drama. Just look at the SEC after No. 12 Georgia took down No. 7 Tennessee. Texas is the only team in the conference with less than two losses and we’re guaranteed to have a team with two conference losses in the SEC title game.
The SEC boasts the most teams with realistic playoff chances, but there are at least three teams in every power conference who can envision themselves getting a first-round bye with a conference title.
By our count, there are 21 teams who could qualify for the 12-team bracket heading into the second half of November. Here’s a look at how:
ACC
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Miami (9-1)
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SMU (9-1)
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Clemson (8-2)
Can the ACC get two teams into the playoff? SMU was No. 14 in the second set of rankings and could possibly jump Tennessee after the Vols’ loss to Georgia. However, it sure feels like the ACC title game will be for the ACC’s sole playoff bid. The Mustangs have a one-game lead in the conference race over the Hurricanes and Tigers while No. 9 Miami has the tiebreaker over No. 20 Clemson.
Big 12
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BYU (9-0)
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Colorado (8-2)
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Arizona State (8-2)
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Iowa State (8-2)
Like the ACC, the Big 12 could be a one-bid playoff league. The only chance for the conference to get two teams in may be BYU finishing the season undefeated and losing to Colorado, Arizona State or Iowa State in the Big 12 title game.
The No. 17 Buffaloes are a game up on the Sun Devils and Cyclones after their win over Utah on Saturday. Colorado has Kansas and Oklahoma State left and wins in those two games will get the Buffs into the Big 12 title game. BYU, meanwhile, has a massive trip to Arizona State in Week 13. The Sun Devils got a huge win over Kansas State on Saturday night to knock the Wildcats outside the top four in the conference.
Big Ten
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Oregon (11-0)
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Indiana (10-0)
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Ohio State (9-1)
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Penn State (9-1)
No. 1 Oregon escaped Madison with a 16-13 win over Wisconsin, No. 5 Indiana was off, No. 2 Ohio State had an easy win at Northwestern and No. 4 Penn State blew out Purdue. We anticipate all four of these teams being in the top five once again on Tuesday night and all four look very likely to make the playoff barring an unexpected loss or two.
If Ohio State beats Indiana at home in Week 13 and the Hoosiers finish 11-1, we have a hard time seeing how the committee keeps the Hoosiers out given where they’re ranked right now. Same with an 11-1 Penn State team that also doesn’t make the Big Ten title game.
Independents
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Notre Dame (9-1)
The No. 8 Fighting Irish have a simple path to the playoff after an easy win over Virginia on Saturday. They’re in if they keep winning. Notre Dame has an undefeated Army at Yankee Stadium in Week 13 and then finishes the season at a USC team that could need a win for bowl eligibility if it loses to UCLA next week.
SEC
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Texas (9-1)
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Texas A&M (8-2)
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Alabama (8-2)
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Ole Miss (8-2)
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Georgia (8-2)
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Tennessee (8-2)
Is the SEC playing for four playoff spots or could the conference’s depth squeeze out a one-loss team from the Big Ten — or even Notre Dame — from the field? There’s a very real scenario that includes all six of these teams finishing the regular season at 10-2 and it’s virtually impossible to see the committee putting six SEC teams in the bracket.
The simplest scenario for the committee is a No. 3 Texas win at No. 15 Texas A&M in the final week of the season to set up a possible matchup with a 10-2 Alabama in the SEC title game. The No. 10 Crimson Tide appear to have the edge as you go through the SEC’s tiebreakers. But if the Aggies beat the Longhorns and four 10-2 teams miss out on the SEC title game, the committee may tie itself in knots trying to figure out how to rank the outsiders and the 10-3 loser of the conference title game.
Group of Five
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Army (9-0)
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Boise State (9-1)
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Tulane (9-2)
The fifth conference champion in the 12-team playoff field will be one of these three teams. We’re nearly 100% certain of it. No. 13 Boise State improved to 9-1 after pulling away from San Jose State in the second half. The Broncos are the favorites in the Mountain West and have been a part of the first two projected playoff fields. If Boise State falters, the winner of the AAC title game will be ready to pounce. That’s our first set title game matchup, too. No. 24 Army and No. 25 Tulane are already locked into the Dec. 6 matchup with two weeks to go in the regular season.
Here are the rest of this week’s winners and losers.
Florida: The Gators have not quit. After losing three of its last four games, Florida responded Saturday with a 27-16 win over No. 22 LSU. Florida has played the toughest schedule in the country; it’s already played six teams ranked in last week’s College Football Playoff rankings and has a seventh next week in No. 11 Ole Miss. Freshman QB DJ Lagway returned to the lineup and played well, even though it was clear he’s not fully healed from the hamstring injury he suffered against Georgia. Now that Florida is 5-5, all it needs is a win over 1-9 Florida State in the final game of the regular season to go to a bowl game.
East Carolina: The Pirates are now bowl-eligible after a 38-31 win at Tulsa on Thursday night. ECU has won three straight games after Mike Houston’s firing and has a path to finishing 8-4 with games at North Texas and at home vs. Navy remaining. RB Rahjai Harris rushed 18 times for 114 yards and two scores in the win.
Arizona: The Wildcats stopped a five-game losing streak with a 27-3 win at home against Houston on Friday night. Tetairoa McMillan has caught a TD pass in three straight games for the Wildcats after the star wide receiver went six games without a score following a four-TD performance in the first game of the season. Arizona is now 4-6 and needs wins over TCU and Arizona State to get to a bowl game.
Colorado State: The Rams are in prime position to make the Mountain West title game after a 24-10 home win in their rivalry game vs. Wyoming on Friday night. CSU is 5-0 in the MWC with games against Fresno State and Utah State remaining. Wins in both of those will put CSU in the conference title game, though the Rams aren’t going to be in playoff contention. Losses to Texas, Colorado and Oregon State mean that the AAC champion would get in the playoff ahead of CSU.
Losers
Louisville: What a bad, bad loss for the Cardinals. Stanford kicked a 52-yard field goal as time expired for a 38-35 win over Louisville on Saturday. The Cardinal’s — yes, it was a singular vs. plural matchup — game-winning drive was aided by two Louisville penalties. The first was a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Tayon Holloway that put Stanford in position for a 57-yard field goal. The second came when Quincy Riley jumped offside on the field goal attempt to make Emmet Kenney’s kick five yards shorter.
Kansas State: The No. 16 Wildcats’ chances of making the Big 12 title game are basically zero after a 24-14 home loss to Arizona State. The Sun Devils went up 21-0 in the first half as Kansas State turned the ball over three times and had two field goal attempts go awry. ASU QB Sam Leavitt was 21-of-34 for 275 yards and three scores as the Sun Devils are now tied for third in the conference with Iowa State. K-State, meanwhile, has three conference losses. The Wildcats need to win out and have both Arizona State and Colorado lose their remaining two games to have a shot at the conference title.
Ball State coach Mike Neu: The Cardinals fell to 3-7 on Tuesday night with a 51-48 loss at Buffalo in overtime. Ball State gave up two TDs in the final six minutes to the Bulls and then the game-winning TD in the extra period after kicking a field goal to start OT. Fast-forward to Saturday when Ball State announced that Neu had been fired. He was the coach of the Cardinals for nearly nine seasons and had a career record of 40-63. The team went to two bowl games in his tenure, including a 7-1 season in 2020 that resulted with a final ranking of No. 23 in the AP Top 25.
Nebraska: The Huskers are desperate for a bowl game. Nebraska has two more chances to get to a sixth win after a 28-20 loss at USC. Nebraska hasn’t been to a bowl game since the 2016 season and hasn’t been able to seal the deal when it gets close. Saturday’s loss was the ninth straight defeat dating back to 2019 when Nebraska had a chance to get a sixth win in a season. The Huskers lost their season finale in 2019 to finish 5-7, lost four straight to end the 2023 season to also finish 5-7 and has now lost four straight this season after moving to 5-1 with a 14-7 win over Rutgers. Games against Wisconsin and Iowa to finish 2024 are no gimmes either.
