Big conferences equal complicated tiebreakers.
That’s the key takeaway from the 2024 college football season as none of the four remaining power conferences have divisions. And with each conference having at least 16 teams, it’s impossible for a team to play every other team in its conference.
Just look at the SEC. There could be a six-way tie for two spots in the conference title game or a five-way tie for one spot. And with Alabama beating Georgia who beat Tennessee who beat Alabama and teams like Ole Miss and Texas A&M also involved in the tiebreaker, it’s impossible to use head-to-head matchups to determine a winner.
Here’s a quick glance at who’s still in contention for a power conference title with two weeks to go in the regular season. The ACC and Big Ten are relatively straightforward. The same can’t be said for the Big 12 and the SEC.
ACC
1. SMU (9-1, 6-0 ACC)
2. Clemson (8-2, 7-1)
3. Miami (9-1, 5-1)
The ACC’s title scenario is the most straightforward of any of the power conferences. SMU is guaranteed a spot in the conference title game even if it goes 1-1 in its remaining ACC games against Virginia and Cal. Miami, meanwhile, needs to win both its games against Wake Forest and Syracuse to play for the conference title.
Clemson is only in if either SMU or Miami finish the season with two conference losses. Thanks to its loss to Louisville — a team that both SMU and Miami beat — the Tigers lose any two- or three-team tiebreaker at 7-1 on the ACC’s common opponents tiebreaker.
Big 12
1. BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12)
2. Colorado (8-2, 6-1)
3. Arizona State (8-2, 5-2)
3. Iowa State (8-2, 5-2)
5. Baylor (6-4, 4-3)
5. Kansas State (7-3, 4-3)
5. TCU (6-4, 4-3)
5. Texas Tech (6-4, 4-3)
5. West Virginia (5-5, 4-3)
The Big 12 has more teams mathematically eligible for the conference title than any other power conference. It’s still possible, though incredibly unlikely, that two 6-3 teams could meet each other in the championship game.
For now, we’ll ignore that scenario because there are still too many variables at play. It would require both BYU and Colorado to lose on Saturday. The most straightforward way to determine the title game participants is for the Cougars and Buffaloes to win out. That’s the matchup if they both finish the season at 8-1. If there are tiebreakers involved to determine the two participants, the tied teams’ record against common opponents will come into play.
BYU is an underdog at Arizona State this weekend. If the Sun Devils win, they are likely in the Big 12 title game with a win over Arizona in the final week of the season thanks to Kansas. ASU beat Kansas, while the Jayhawks have wins over both BYU and Iowa State.
If there’s a four-team tie at 7-2 and Colorado loses to Kansas, Arizona State would likely play Iowa State for the conference title. The Sun Devils would have the edge among common opponents thanks to, you guessed it, that win over KU. If Colorado beats Kansas and loses to Oklahoma State, the Buffaloes would play Arizona State for the title if there’s a four-team tie.
Big Ten
1. Oregon (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten)
2. Indiana (10-0, 7-0)
3. Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)
4. Penn State (9-1, 6-1)
We’ll have a lot more clarity on the Big Ten title race after Indiana and Ohio State play at Noon ET on Saturday. Oregon is already in the Big Ten title game after its win at Wisconsin. It’s a three-for-one scenario to see who plays the Ducks.
The winner of Saturday’s game in Columbus has a huge advantage for that spot, while Penn State is on the back foot. Whoever wins the top-five matchup is in the title game with a win in the final week of the season. Indiana has cellar-dweller Purdue to end the season while Ohio State has its annual rivalry game with Michigan. An 11-1 Penn State needs Ohio State to win on Saturday and lose to the Wolverines to beat Indiana via a tiebreaker involving the winning percentage of each team’s opponents.
SEC
1. Texas (9-1, 5-1 SEC)
1. Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1)
3. Georgia (8-2, 6-2)
4. Tennessee (8-2, 5-2)
5. Alabama (8-2, 4-2)
5. Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2)
What if all six of the teams listed above finished at 6-2? It’s not impossible. If one of Texas or Texas A&M loses on Saturday and this week’s loser wins the matchup between the two teams on Nov. 30, both teams are 6-2. Tennessee will likely be favored over Vanderbilt in the final week of the season and Alabama and Ole Miss are favorites in their final two games.
In that situation, the SEC would break the tie via the conference records of the six teams’ SEC opponents. So far, Alabama and Texas A&M have the edge, while Tennessee and Ole Miss are at a serious disadvantage.
If both Texas and Texas A&M win on Saturday, the winner of their renewed rivalry is in the SEC title game thanks to a 7-1 record. And Alabama would again appear to have the edge in a three-or-more team tiebreaker at 6-2 because of the record of its conference opponents.
