Multiple Democratic senators expressed concern that former President Donald Trump has more support from the American people than polling suggests.
After Trump performed better than the polling projections in both 2016 and 2020, Democrats told The Hill in an article published on Monday that the 2024 election will be close no matter what the polls are currently showing. Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by 2.2 points nationally as of Monday afternoon, according to the RealClearPolitics average. The margin between Harris and Trump is closer than Biden’s lead over Trump at this point in 2020 (7 points) and Hillary Clinton’s lead at this point in 2016 (3 points).
“That’s ominous,” said one anonymous Democratic senator while discussing how Trump is performing better in the polls against Harris. “There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re working as hard as you can work, no matter what. My sense there’s not a lot more you can do than we’re already doing.”
The lawmaker added that he thinks undercounting of Trump’s support may be due to people feeling “embarrassed.”
“Most of what he preaches, most of us have taught our children to try to not be that way on the playground,” the senator said. “So there’s a certain amount of reluctance to admit I’m going to vote for somebody whose conduct I tell my children is wrong.”
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) warned against putting any stock in the polls, arguing, “Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth.”
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock from the battleground state of Georgia said that “the only poll that matters is Nov. 5.”
“We know this election is going to be close. It’s going to be close in the battleground states, including Georgia, which is why I’m doing everything I can to make sure we put Georgia in our column,” he said. “The only poll that matters is Nov. 5, right?”
“We talk about margin of error for a reason,” Warnock added.
Another Democratic senator who spoke to The Hill on the condition of anonymity said, “I don’t think any poll right now means much of anything.” The lawmaker added that many people are “delusionally” viewing the Trump administration’s economic policies as successful.
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“I’m surprised that people look back on the Trump economy delusionally as being so good, which I think is the major factor that supports his approval rating,” the senator said.
In the all-important battleground states, Trump and Harris are essentially tied, according to RealClearPolitics, and neither candidate saw much of a change in swing state polling following their September 10 debate.
“Figuring out the turnout is the hardest thing out there. This cycle there may be a surprise Trump vote and a surprise Harris vote,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said. “I, too, share the concern that there are going to be some surprises. What accentuates my concern is when you poll people who have not voted in ’20 but are planning to vote today, they are disproportionately Trump voters.”
“If you look at first-time voters who didn’t vote in ’20, they are leaning toward Trump and they’re very low information and they like his kind of style,” Lake added. “And they like Elon Musk and they like a lot of things like that. I worry about that. I think it’s definitely a concern, and I think we just have to get enough margin to compensate for that.”
