On Thursday night, the upstart Washington Commanders visit the resurgent Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC East battle with massive postseason implications.
The Eagles are 3.5-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 48.5 points.
Who will emerge victorious in this prime-time divisional affair?
When the Commanders have the ball
The Commanders have flown past their preseason win total projection of 6.5 and appear poised to make the postseason in Jayden Daniels’ rookie season.
Daniels has exceeded all expectations, ranking fourth among qualified quarterbacks in QBR with nine touchdowns to just two interceptions and an impressive rushing profile.
Kliff Kingsbury has done an excellent job as the offensive coordinator — Washington ranks second among NFL offenses in EPA per play this season.
However, a road matchup on a short week presents significant challenges against a surging Eagles defense.
After a rocky start to the year, Vic Fangio’s defense leads the NFL in EPA per play and success rate allowed since the team’s Week 5 bye.
Rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been immense difference-makers, and Zack Baun has proven to be one of the steals of the offseason.
The Eagles rank 10th among defensive lines in pass-rush win rate and should be able to generate pressure against Daniels.
The rookie passer hasn’t been the same against pressure this season, ranking 31st out of 37 qualified quarterbacks with a 58% adjusted completion rate.
When the Eagles have the ball
Kellen Moore’s Eagles offense has begun to take shape in recent weeks, especially with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith healthy.
Over his last five games, Jalen Hurts has 16 total touchdowns and just one interception.
He’ll face a Washington defense that has improved mightily since the beginning of the season under the stewardship of Dan Quinn.
Since Week 5, the Commanders rank sixth in EPA per pass allowed but just 24th in EPA per rush allowed. Washington has struggled to defend up front this season, ranking 29th in adjusted defensive line yards.
Saquon Barkley should have his way with this defense on early downs behind an offensive line that has generated the second-most adjusted line yards on running back carries.
Left tackle Jordan Mailata is expected to return for this game, and his impact can’t be overstated. The Commanders’ best asset on defense is a pressure unit that ranks fourth in pass-rush win rate.
Mailata has been out since Week 6, but he’s the second-highest-graded offensive tackle in PFF’s pass-block win rate.
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Prediction
The Commanders have exceeded all expectations this season, but I’m backing the Eagles at home in this spot.
Washington’s offense has faced the fifth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and the Steelers last week were just the second above-average pass defense by DVOA they’ve seen all year.
Fangio’s defense will be prepared to give Daniels issues.
I expect the Eagles run game to dominate on early downs, making Hurts’ life easier on passing downs against a defense that majors in man coverage.
If Washington has to commit extra resources to stop the run, look for Brown and Smith to beat the Commanders cornerbacks in one-on-one coverage.
The market is shifting to the Eagles as 3.5-point favorites, but you should be able to find a -3 at -120 odds or better.
If not, I’d recommend parlaying the Eagles’ moneyline with the Lions, who are 13.5-point favorites over the Jaguars on Sunday.
PICK: Wait for Eagles -3 OR Eagles ML + Lions ML parlay (-144, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
