Former President Donald Trump received some encouraging news about early voting results. (Jeff Kowalsky – AFP / Getty Images)
By Michael Schwarz September 24, 2024 at 2:24pm
Nearly every piece of trustworthy, 2024 election-related data favors former President Donald Trump.
For instance, in a story published Tuesday, Republican political consultant Jimmy Keady, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, told Fox News that early mail-in-voting data shows trends that Trump supporters should applaud.
“It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote,” Keady said.
Specifically, Republican vote-by-mail requests have increased relative to Democrats in three states, including two anticipated swing states.
In Florida, where Trump defeated President Joe Biden by 3.3 percentage points in the 2020 election, the Democrats’ lead in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk by more than five percent.
Florida, however, has looked solid for Republicans in recent years. Thus, the real drama lies elsewhere.
For instance, in North Carolina, where Trump defeated Biden by 1.3 percentage points, the Democrats’ vote-by-mail edge has diminished by nearly 15 percent.
Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, which election officials certified as a 1.2-percent Biden victory in 2020, Democrats’ edge in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk by more than 35 percent.
The Pennsylvania figure holds special significance.
After all, with Trump polling well in the Sun Belt, a Keystone State victory would all but assure him the presidency.
Happily, according to the Pennsylvania news-focused outlet Spotlight PA, voter registration trends in that state also favor Trump.
In short, thanks to surging GOP numbers, Democrats now hold their “weakest voter registration advantage compared to Republicans in recent decades.”
Much of the credit for that surge belongs to grassroots activist Scott Presler’s Early Vote Action organization.
In fact, Presler regularly posts voter registration updates on the social media platform X.
On Monday, for instance, he reported that Republicans have flipped the voter-registration edge in three Pennsylvania counties.
“I can’t describe what I’m feeling,” Presler tweeted.
I can’t describe what I’m feeling.
We flipped Beaver County 🔵🔜🔴.
We flipped Bucks County 🔵🔜🔴.
We flipped Luzerne County 🔵🔜🔴.
This November, we’ll flip Pennsylvania 🔵🔜🔴.
My heart is singing so loudly, I can’t even control it.
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) September 23, 2024
Word of the Pennsylvania activist’s voter-registration exploits has spread across the country.
For instance, Republican U.S. Senate nominee Kari Lake of Arizona praised Presler as a “legend.”
Thank you, Scott. You are a legend!
— Kari Lake (@KariLake) September 24, 2024
Of course, all of this good news does not preclude dreadful outcomes. Throngs of leftist women will still support Vice President Kamala Harris because voting for a candidate based on race and sex makes them feel compassionate and morally superior. And we still face the potential for war-mongering globalists to engage in election-rigging shenanigans once again.
There is also the possibility of establishment Republicans voting for Harris, while more Democrats than usual break for Trump in an election that has all the appearances of a major political realignment.
Still, we must show gratitude for God’s blessings, rather than succumb to cynicism and sinful worry about the future.
As it stands — and I cannot emphasize this enough — a Harris victory seems exceedingly improbable.
Registration and mail-in-voting numbers in Pennsylvania especially do not look good for her.
Moreover, polling in non-swing states has revealed more bad news for Democrats. In blue states such as Virginia and New York, for instance, polls suggest that voters have shifted heavily toward Trump since 2020.
Four years ago, Biden won Virginia by 10 points. But a new poll showed the 2024 race within the margin of error in that state.
Likewise, in New York, the latest Siena College poll showed Harris with only a 12-point lead. Biden won that state by 23 points in 2020.
NEW YORK IS IN PLAY, new poll finds.
2024 Election in New York
🟦Harris 52% (+12)
🟥Trump 40%A state Biden won by 23%, New York is becoming increasingly competitive. Harris will likely pull off the worst Democratic performance in the Empire State since 1988.
Siena College |… pic.twitter.com/H19YP5zM1h
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) September 22, 2024
All told, things look good.
North Carolina Republicans have shaved 15 percent off the Democrats’ advantage in vote-by-mail requests. If that holds, and if neighboring Virginia has shifted well to the right, then Trump cannot lose North Carolina.
Furthermore, Pennsylvania Republicans have shaved 35 percent off the Democrats’ advantage in vote-by-mail requests while slashing or even eradicating the Democrats’ edge in voter registration. If that holds, and if neighboring New York has shifted well to the right, then Trump cannot lose Pennsylvania.
In sum, notwithstanding possible shenanigans, the former president occupies a strong position.
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
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