Out of the frying pan, into the fire. Drafting our fantasy football teams is its own hardship. Building a roster isn’t just about getting the players we want. Our leaguemates and their tendencies still stand in our way. Plans and strategies go out the window. But let’s say you got through 18 rounds. Even better, all of the players you wanted are on your team. However, there’s a new game to play.
How good do you feel about Josh Allen facing Baltimore’s defense on Sunday night?
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After a mediocre preseason, are you sure Ashton Jeanty will deliver against New England’s interior?
[It’s not too late — join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season]
The storylines will change every week, but our level of panic will remain the same. Let’s walk through the four I’ve been tracking heading into the season. A couple might be easy to dismiss. The others, well, you might want to watch something else while the fantasy points (hopefully) show up.
Can the Falcons offense get off the ground?
Bijan Robinson cost you a first-round pick. Drake London’s ADP resided in the mid-second. But don’t get me wrong, they were ideal options at cost over the summer.
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Robinson is the (slightly) lesser version of Saquon Barkley, as the Falcons’ RB1 was the only rusher to come close to last year’s OPoY in touches during the regular season (378 to 365). London posted top-six efficiency metrics despite playing with a hobbled Kirk Cousins.
Your process was right. But Atlanta’s offensive line is trying to skew the results.
All of our hopes rest on Michael Penix Jr.’s shoulders. Well, mostly his left one. Anyway, the longer he stays upright, the more times he can get the critical experience required for a young passer after just 114 dropbacks last year. But the Falcons’ latest rash of injuries to their protective unit put everything at risk. And facing Tampa Bay’s defensive front only exacerbates the situation.
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Blitz Rate: 2nd (2024 End-of-Season Rank)
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Pressure Rate: 5th
The Bucs are returning eight of 11 starters on defense. Plus, HC Todd Bowles tends to throw the kitchen sink at young QBs. In last year’s season opener against Washington, Jayden Daniels saw a blitz on 42.4% of his dropbacks (second-most of the week). Couple a Bowles’ defense with a weakened protective unit for Penix, and I’d pump the brakes on any Falcons’ skill player. However, a couple of the former Huskies’ traits stood out during his debut:
Despite seeing 31 pressures (league-average), Penix’s three sacks tied for the fourth-fewest amongst all starters. His average time to throw in obvious passing situations was the third-quickest. And he was willing to test coverages down the field (fourth-highest air yards per attempt).
Robinson earned the third-highest target share among RBs in ’24 and doesn’t have much added competition for looks to start the year. He can offset a drop in rushing efficiency as a receiver. And London’s absurd 39.8% rate shows no signs of coming down as Darnell Mooney works his way back from the shoulder injury he sustained during training camp.
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Let’s bet on volume and revisit the Falcons in Week 2.
Panic Level: Low to Mild.
Stafford Back Watch: Week 1
My Bengals’ bias aside, I remember when Joe Burrow’s wrist injury turned us all into doctors and physical therapists. We were sure he was doomed when he couldn’t pick up a water bottle. Now, another QB with a No. 9 on his jersey is dragging his medical history into the season. At least his practice reports have been positive!
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2025: Aggravated vertebral disc
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2024: Lower lumbar sprain
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2022: Spinal cord bruise and concussion
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2021: Lower lumbar sprain
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2019: Tailbone fracture
And this list is just the back-related trauma Matthew Stafford has suffered. The 37-year-old passer hasn’t fully practiced in a month. Los Angeles made a significant addition to their receiving corps. But the two haven’t had the full summer to get in sync. And like the Bowles’ discussion we were just having, HC Demeco Ryans has his defense flying toward the passer at a similar pace.
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Sack Rate: 4th
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Passing Yards Allowed per Game: 6th
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QB Knockdowns: 12th
I included the passing yards allowed stat since we can’t expect Stafford to add anything to the offense with his legs. He only scrambled three times last year. No, not three per game. In sixteen games, the former Lion dared to cross the line of scrimmage with the ball in his hands thrice.
Puka Nacua and Davante Adams need their QB1. And given the Rams’ backup option, Adams might want Stafford to stay healthy a bit more. In any case, with the Rams’ gunslinger set to start, I’m less concerned for the early-round WRs we drafted.
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Nacua + Kupp: 8.8 (Targets per Game), 77.9 (Rec. Yards per Game), 32.1% (Avg Air Yard Share)
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Everyone Else: 1.4, 8.8, 5.0%
HC Sean McVay’s offense concentrates its passing game on the primary receivers, as do the Bengals, Dolphins and Vikings (wonder if there’s a connection). Plus, the Rams’ offensive line, while still a work in progress, kept Stafford below the league average in pressure rate and the fourth-lowest sack rate of his career. With the offense’s use of play-action and pre-snap motion, play-calling can (and has) kept Stafford (mostly) out of harm’s way.
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Week 1 won’t be easy, but we can’t predict injuries. But we do have a feel for where the ball will go. Stafford’s long-term health should be our main worry. Let’s get through Week 1 to see if we need to adjust expectations for the Rams offense.
Panic Level: Mild.
Pray for Jets Fans
Maybe you all can help me. Or, better yet, let’s try to help Jets fans because I’m only seeing a rollercoaster of emotions in store for fantasy managers and supporters alike. We already saw the highs during the preseason:
The Konami Code is still alive and well in 2025. In a single drive, Justin Fields made his case for having a mid-round ADP. His quick jaunt into the end zone netted him 7.3 points. Even if no designed rushes were on the play-calling menu for the first preseason game, his scrambling gives the Jets (and fantasy managers) a chance. However, Fields as a passer is likely where we’ll find the lows tof this offense:
I get it. That was only his second time on the field as New York’s starter. But we’ve seen this before. The hope was that OC Tanner Engstrand would find some concepts that fit his new QB. For Jared Goff, it was play-action. However, this was one cheat code that didn’t work for Fields in Pittsburgh.
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Completion Percentage (on play-action plays): 22nd (out of 31 qualifiers — min. 100 dropbacks)
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EPA per Dropback: 28th
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Success Rate: 29th
Again, I recognize it’s preseason, but Fields’ 3.9 air yards per attempt doesn’t instill confidence. Still taking an average of 2.77 seconds to throw is unsettling. Pittsburgh’s defensive front ranked third in pass-rush win rate and has some familiarity with how Fields will react under pressure. They gave up the fourth-fewest rushing yards to QBs in 2024 despite facing Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson (twice), Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Until we see marked improvement in skill or scheme, we may only want to see Fields tuck the ball and run, negating his value as a mid-round selection.
Panic Level: Mild to High.
Bills vs. Ravens: Better real-life than fantasy game?
The countdown to the first Sunday Night Football of the 2025 season is going to be electric. We’re all going to be coming down from the highs of the early games. But the virtual marquee with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson as the headliners will be too tantalizing. Clips from their last meeting will likely be on repeat to keep the hype train rolling.
We’re getting sold a fireworks display. From the MVP QBs on down, there’s a plotline to follow. And most of us paid for front row seats. Six skill players from this game had an early-round ADP. Derrick Henry is your RB1. James Cook might be your RB2. Regardless, you’re expecting production out of all of them. But history isn’t on your side.
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2019, Week 14: 41 (total points), QB11 (Jackson fantasy finish), QB 29 (Allen fantasy finish)
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2022, Week 4: 43, QB19, QB5
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2024, Week 4: 45, QB6, QB28
All three previous regular-season contests featuring the QB1 and QB2 by ADP have failed to hit the over. Neither passer has crested 250 passing yards against the other. Only Jackson has multi-touchdown results to boost his performance.
The likelihood of a low-scoring affair should warrant a roster check. While Henry and Mark Andrews are likely the tentpoles of their positions on your squad, test your bench depth against a player like Zay Flowers, or Keon Coleman (in deeper leagues). While better days should be ahead for them both, a defensive struggle will have your fantasy team getting off to a slow start in 2025.
Panic Level: Mild to High
