Fantasy Football storylines to watch in Week 7: Will Davante Adams fix the Jets offense?

Football truly straddles the line between being an art and a science.

Honestly, you could zoom out and include all sports. But after watching OC Ben Johnson scheme up nearly a dozen plays for offensive linemen, I had to close all my spreadsheets. My technically oriented mindset doesn’t know how to factor in pettiness. However, it makes the games all the more enjoyable.

If a perfect model for the NFL existed, we wouldn’t get as excited entering each week. I’d have known to start Romeo Doubs. However, the storylines are a blend of human chaos and statistics that make the “art and science” descriptor fit. And after another wild set of games, let’s tease out some takeaways from all the drama.

Is Jordan Love a top-3 fantasy QB for the rest of the season?

Admittedly, a top-three mark for Jordan Love feels aggressive.

Typically, we reserve that level of confidence for mobile QBs. Over the last five seasons, non-hybrid passers have needed at least 4,828 passing yards and 38 TDs to crack the top three. After Love posted his fourth multi-TD outing on Sunday, the results hint at a path for him to get there. But the offensive success comes from the scheme as much as Love’s arm.

• Pre-Snap Motion (with Jordan Love healthy): 3rd

• RPO Rate: 5th

• Play-Action Rate: 16th

HC Matt LaFleur has been in his bag all season. The Packers have top-12 marks in yards per drive and EPA per play. But it’s not all done through the air. Love’s dropback rate on early downs (54.0%) sits at the league average. So, having the backfield maintain a 48.5% success rate makes obvious passing situations easier for Love. However, his group of receivers and their ability to create highlights every week are what will keep Love in the top-three discussion:

Doubs’ return (and two-TD result) will garner most of the attention, but his skill set seamlessly fits Green Bay’s passing game. Operating primarily as their X-receiver, his 3.34 YPRR from the boundary (with Love under center) falls in line with other WR1s (Mike Evans – 3.44, Terry McLaurin – 3.45). Love’s aggressive tendencies (8.9 air yards per attempt, sixth-most) will have Doubs as a weekly WR3. However, Green Bay’s aerial attack can switch to the intermediate parts of the field with even deadlier weapons.

• Jayden Reed (ranks amongst WRs – min. 15.0% target share): 2nd (YAC per Reception rank), 3rd (YPRR), 3rd (EPA per Target)

• Tucker Kraft: 1st, 11th, 9th

The Packers’ offensive line still sits around the middle of the pack in pass-block win rate, necessitating more short-area throws in some cases. In either case, both have been staples at their relative position. Tucker Kraft even holds the top overall ESPN receiver score for TEs. Plus, with Bo Melton and (occasionally) Dontayvion Wicks popping up for big games, Love’s options appear endless.

After dropping 28.2 points on the Vikings (mostly in the fourth quarter), defensive matchups aren’t much of a concern for Love. Accordingly, a runout of Houston, Jacksonville and Detroit before his bye are environments worth targeting.

So, top three might be too high for Love, but his short-term schedule sets him up to stay in the conversation.

No Nico, no problem?

Nico Collins was the WR1 coming out of Week 5. Actually, he’s still first in receiving yards after this past week. After racking up most of Houston’s first downs (27), touchdowns (3) and air yards (41.8%), we should’ve been concerned for the Texans’ offense. But Collins’ results aren’t solely the product of his talent. And without him on the field, we’re seeing why his QB is one of the best in the game right now.

The touchdown throws (and ensuing celebration poses) are fun for fantasy managers, but clips like these go unnoticed. They’re simple, but highlight why C.J. Stroud can manage.

Despite the Texans having a bottom-10 unit in pass-block win rate, Stroud remains unfazed by pressure. His ability to diagnose defensive fronts, move within the pocket and flick the ball to an open receiver are daggers to an opposing pass rush. Through six weeks, Stroud’s faced the sixth-most dropbacks under duress. But Texans’ drives haven’t imploded because of it.

• First Downs per Attempt: 2nd

• Passing Success Rate: 4th

• EPA per Dropback: 8th

Stroud has generated the most passing yards of any QB (508) with defenders bearing down on them. He’s even better in obvious passing situations. Stroud has 18 first-down completions from third- or fourth-and-long situations. Accordingly, we saw Stroud operate a Nico-less pass-catching corps with a similar level of efficiency on Sunday.

• Stefon Diggs: 5 (first downs), 6 (receptions)

• Tank Dell: 5, 7

• Joe Mixon: 2, 2

• Dalton Schultz: 1, 4

Houston hit a season-high 48.4% usage rate of two-TE groupings against the Patriots. Coupled with shorter passes, Stroud notched his second-highest passing success rate on the season against a secondary, allowing just 14.7 fantasy points to QBs. In addition, Mixon’s return coincided with the offense’s best average yards per play on early downs (6.5), enabling easier conversions. With better matchups ahead (at GB, vs. IND), the Texans offense should continue to thrive as Stroud continues to build his MVP case.

The Eagles need an identity on offense

A wise man once said, “Teams take on the personality of their head coach and QB.”

Usually, this works when the two behaviors align. But try finding greater opposites than HC Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts. While one jaws with fans, the other stays within himself. For Sirianni, the action is the juice. And it’d be one thing if we could discern a game plan while the outcomes got him fired up on the sideline.

But, one game after the bye, it’s hard to see the Eagles’ strengths on offense.

There’s a universe where DeVonta Smith doesn’t take a slant for a TD, and the Eagles lose. Regardless, the approach doesn’t match what we thought we were getting with OC Kellen Moore coming to Philly.

• Cowboys (2019-2022): 3rd (EPA per Dropback), 18th (MoF Throw Rate), 17th (Play-Action Rate)

• Chargers (2023): 15th, 8th, 6th

After a steep dropoff from the first two months of the ’23 season, the efficiency shown in Moore’s offenses was supposed to be a boon for the Eagles. The differences in personnel and emphasis on the running game would take time to integrate. But, generally, the passing game would be more rhythmic instead of requiring chunk plays to keep them afloat. However, getting healthy didn’t change much about the play-calling.

• Week 1: 8.8 (passing aDOT), 74.1% (adjusted completion percentage), 38.1% (middle-of-the-field throw rate)

• Week 2: 6.6, 82.8%, 52.6%

• Week 3: 6.9, 88.6%, 32.0%

• Week 4: 9.6, 67.9%, 31.8%

• Week 6: 10.6, 66.7%, 22.2%

Plus, as expected, the offensive line isn’t as effective. They rank 18th in adjusted yards before contact on a squad with the eighth-highest rushing rate on early downs. Luckily, Saquon Barkley has been able to churn out extra yards (fourth in adjusted yards after contact per attempt), setting up shorter third-down conversions. But nothing feels easy, even with all their playmakers.

The lone silver lining is we don’t have to worry about the weekly opportunities for the offense. A.J. Brown returned and claimed 37.5% of the targets. The most work Kenneth Gainwell has seen in a single game is three touches. Play-calling and tendencies are the only concern. And this upcoming stretch of games (at Giants, at Bengals, vs. Jaguars) is the perfect time for them to get back on track.

San Francisco’s offense is like Whac-A-Mole, and it’s not fun

Christian McCaffrey has Achilles tendonitis.

Brandon Aiyuk conducted a hold-in before earning his long-term deal.

Simply put, the 49ers were in a funk to start the season. However, Thursday night was one of the first times the offense gave off 2023 vibes.

To be fair, Deebo Samuel’s long TD wasn’t the first explosive pass Brock Purdy has completed this year. In fact, he sits eighth in explosive pass rate. But it was his longest passing score and Samuel’s first receiving TD. The breakaway speed had shades of his 54-yard score against Seattle last year. And yet, outside of him zooming into the end zone, fantasy managers haven’t been as excited to roster the primary SF WRs.

• Deebo Samuel (PPR PPG): 14.1 (2024), 16.3 (2023)

• Brandon Aiyuk: 9.7, 15.6

I’m focusing on these two as we spent early-round picks on them during drafts. If you picked up Jauan Jennings, congrats! We couldn’t expect him to repeat his 46.5-point outburst from Week 3. But he’s maintained 6.8 targets per game since. However, he’s (partly) contributed to the problem facing Samuel and Aiyuk.

Last year, just four 49ers pass-catchers ran a route on 50.0% of Purdy’s dropbacks. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo would work the short area of the field. George Kittle and Aiyuk patrolled the intermediate parts. All was well.

Things have changed in 2024.

Even without Jordan Mason taking over McCaffrey’s receiving role, Kyle Juszczyk (7.8% target share) and Jennings (20.0%) have more than filled the target void. So, we’ve got fewer opportunities for Aiyuk and Samuel. However, the lack of explosives is due to a shift in Purdy’s play.

• 2023: 8.2 (air yards per pass attempt), 6.5 (team YAC per reception)

• 2024: 9.8, 4.4

Credit where it’s due. Purdy is pushing the ball farther downfield, and his marks in EPA per play (0.23) and passing success rate (51.1%) still rank in the top 10. However, deeper throws can put a cap on what receivers can do after the catch, as they typically involve more defenders. It’s why we’ve seen fewer of the long catch-and-runs. But for those with Aiyuk on their roster, I’m not giving up just yet.

Go look at how HC Kyle Shanahan deployed Aiyuk last year. He had a deep aDOT (14.6), barely played in the slot (24.6% snap rate), and won downfield (17.8 yards per reception) on limited volume (6.6 targets per game).

Nothing’s changed this year.

After the slow start, Aiyuk has led 49ers pass-catchers in air yards (33.6%) and targets (31) since Week 3. Purdy and Aiyuk just haven’t connected in the end zone. However, with two big matchups ahead of their bye (KC and DAL), I’d look to acquire Aiyuk before he gets back in sync with his QB.

Davante Adams can pick up a blitz. He would’ve saved his best friend from a nasty sack in Week 5:

OK, I’ve had my fun. However, there’s a kernel of truth in my jabs.

The lack of synchronicity between Aaron Rodgers, the offensive line and his receivers has been (literally) painful to experience at times. The 40-year-old QB has taken the second-most hits amongst all active passers. He’s already nursing an ankle injury. But adding a three-time All-Pro WR has its merits outside of his mind meld with Rodgers (if anything, that should help more!).

We got a clue of what to expect during their first game with OC Todd Downing.

• Early-Down Passing Rate: 58.1% (Weeks 1-5), 56.5% (Week 6)

• Play-Action Rate: 13.9%, 20.3%

• MoF Throw Rate: 46.1%, 65.6%

• Pre-Snap Motion: 37.7%, 58.5%

Downing beat the fraud allegations (for now). The passing game not only continued to lean on Rodgers’ arm to move down the field but also hit the easy buttons to boost their efficiency. The future Hall of Famer hit season-highs in EPA per dropback and passing yards. His laser accuracy was on display yet again. You’d think with these offensive changes and the results (minus the loss), Adams wouldn’t be a critical need. But Monday night’s performance has to be more of the norm instead of a one-off.

• Early-Down Passing Rate: 5th

• Early-Down Passing Success Rate: 20th

• Passing Yards Gained on Early Downs: 20th

Rodgers might be throwing the ball as much as he wants, but he can’t catch the ball, too. The Jets’ inefficiencies on first and second downs have set them up with the ninth-highest average yards to go on third or fourth down. Another route technician to pair with Garrett Wilson would alleviate some of the pressure in obvious passing situations. And it’s not like Adams hasn’t continued to highlight his diverse route tree while away from Rodgers.

Wilson ranks 37th in ESPN’s open score for WRs. Breece Hall is the only other Jets’ pass-catcher above the 50th-percentile mark. Meanwhile, Adams, at 31 years old, ranks 24th. It’s part of why Rodgers has the third-highest pressure-to-sack ratio of his career (25.4%). He’s not as agile, and he has fewer options. But with Davante back at his side, Adams tips the scale in Rodgers’ favor.