Week 1 was a messy week for many NFL offenses, and that’s no great surprise. With NFL teams backing off preseason usage and dealing with relatively new practice rules and restrictions, the early-season games often take on a glorified exhibition tint. We have to be reasonable with the early returns in our fantasy football leagues.
The initial liftoff at tight end was probably the rockiest of all. Only three tight ends scored double-digit points in half-point PPR formats (just one of those players was viewed as a no-doubt starter), and only three tight ends fetched more than five targets. Given all the anxiety produced by this brick of a tight end week, it’s reasonable for us to do a positional audit and try to sort through fact and fluke, signal and noise.
Time for some takeaways.
It was a historically bad day of NFL passing (it has to get better)
Just how rusty were quarterbacks and passing offenses in Week 1? The teams threw for just 188.3 yards per game and 1.1 touchdowns per game. The YPA was 6.7, the touchdown rate 3.6%, the sack rate 7.4%.
Let’s put those stats in historical context. If these numbers held for the full season, it would be:
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The worst passing yardage per game, and fewest attempts, since 1992
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The worst YPA since 2003
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The lowest touchdown rate since 1993
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The highest sack rate since 1997
The shape of the summer has a lot to do with this lousy day of passing. And remember many of these offenses are starting over; a whopping 14 teams have new offensive coordinators. Meanwhile, the seven best passing teams last week were offenses enjoying large-scale continuity (Dolphins, Rams, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Ravens, Eagles, Packers). We need to be patient with the reshuffled teams.
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Touchdown droughts hurt this position more than others
With touchdowns hard to find in Week 1, it stands to reason the tight end position would be hit hard. After about 10 tight ends are ranked each week, we generally shift into “touchdown or bust” mode as we try to find sleepers at the position. But with end-zone visits rare in the openers, tight end stats fell through the floor. Things will get better.
My first intuitive hypothesis on the Week 1 tight end mess was that maybe a lot of these players were doing the dirty work, blocking more and running routes less. But the stats don’t back up that reasonable idea. It was plausible, but it’s wrong.
Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts and George Kittle led their teams in routes run, and most of the other signature tight ends had route counts similar to the top wideouts on their respective teams. Here’s a quick rundown:
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Sam LaPorta (27 routes, 32 led team)
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Mark Andrews (38 routes, 45 led team)
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Dalton Kincaid (25 routes, 27 led team)
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Trey McBride (34 routes, 36 led team)
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Evan Engram (19 routes, 23 led team)
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Brock Bowers (31 routes, 39 led team)
Jake Ferguson and David Njoku were seeing plenty of routes before, unfortunately, getting hurt in the middle of their games.
As for Taysom Hill, America’s hybrid, he had six routes on 26 dropbacks, two targets and five carries. He always needs a rushing touchdown to pay off his weekly flex-hope play.
Isaiah Likely is probably here to stay
Likely was the smash at tight end last week, going off for a 9-111-1 line and just missing a second touchdown on the final snap of the game. The Chiefs had no idea how to defend him.
To be fair, Likely’s big night was largely due to the presence of Andrews, who received regular double teams from the Kansas City defense. But it’s encouraging to see Baltimore solve how to use Likely and Andrews on the field together, something that hadn’t clicked in the past. Likely was drafted as a contingency-upside pick, tied to Andrews encountering injury problems. We now see Likely can plausibly be a weekly fantasy factor even if Andrews stays healthy.
If your expectations are reasonable, the waiver-wire tight ends aren’t bad
Obviously Likely was the only glittering tight end on some free-agent wires this week, but in the secondary market, there were other interesting options.
Tucker Kraft was busier and more productive than Luke Musgrave last week; unfortunately, we have to wait for Jordan Love to return, but Kraft is intriguing. Kliff Kingsbury always wants Zach Ertz to be featured in his offenses. Colby Parkinson was impactful for the Rams, and more targets will open up with the Puka Nacua injury. Chig Okonkwo and Juwan Johnson scored touchdowns. Maybe Jordan Akins or Luke Schonmaker will step forward if Njoku and Ferguson miss time, as expected.
Last week wasn’t fun in those tight end streets, gamers. But I promise you, much better returns are coming soon.
Stats from Pro-Football-Reference and Pro Football Focus were used in the composition of this article.
