Being a fantasy football analyst has to be one of the coolest jobs out there.
You spend most of your time watching game videos, breaking down offensive and defensive schemes, studying coaching tendencies and analyzing upcoming matchups.
You get to connect with people from all over and help with their weekly lineup decisions and waiver claims, all in the hopes of helping them win that coveted fantasy league championship.
When they win, the accolades are abundant, and the joy and excitement that comes from hearing about their wins can be overwhelming.
But the job does not come without its difficulties.
As joyous as the fantasy football community can be, it is also very stubborn — especially when it comes to some of its favorite players.
Just scroll through my social media mentions (@rotobuzzguy) and look no further than the vitriol from the Mike Gesicki truthers, who were unhappy when I suggested benching him here in Week 10.
“You can’t put that back in the bottle,” they screamed. “He’s got 12 catches for 173 yards and two touchdowns over his last two games. He’s a stud.”
Yes, Gesicki enjoyed a fantastic run in the absence of Tee Higgins, and he even saw nine targets during “Thursday Night Football.”
But it wasn’t about Gesicki’s past performance.
It was about his upcoming matchup, and when the Ravens acquired Tre’Davious White at the NFL trade deadline, they changed the dynamic of their secondary and freed up safety Kyle Hamilton (and his backup after he got hurt) to cover the tight end better.
To weigh the past so heavily in comparison to the future matchup is a mistake, and many fantasy managers are about to do it again Sunday.
Tampa Bay’s Cade Otton has been a revelation for the tight end position, and for those who have been using him, the benefits have been massive.
Over the past three games, in the absences of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton garnered 31 targets, which he turned into 25 catches for 258 yards and three touchdowns.
The performance has been beyond impressive. But for this week, he is on my bench.
The 49ers rank eighth in DVOA against the tight end.
They are allowing an average of 46.2 receiving yards per game to the position, and linebackers Fred Warner and DeVondre Campbell have been beyond impressive in coverage.
They’ve shut down Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson and Trey McBride, and they haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end since Week 5 — when an uncovered backup, Elijah Higgins, released from his blocking assignment near the goal line.
Your expectations for Otton need to be checked.
Otton managers won’t be alone in their disappointment, as many of the top tight ends are in tough matchups this week.
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But it’s your job to understand the matchups and not to be stubborn.
Dalton Kincaid, Hunter Henry and even Dallas Goedert have better matchups you can explore.
It is a tough enough position to navigate, but clinging to what was, instead of what is, could be your downfall.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy football news and advice.
