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For the first time in years, the stakes could hardly be higher for the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.”
No. 17 Florida (5-2, 3-2 SEC) saved its season with a win over Texas two weeks ago, while No. 3 Georgia (6-1, 4-1) has had 14 days to stew over a shocking loss to Auburn its last time out.
Neither team can afford a loss in this SEC rivalry, but the market has taken a clear stand, with the Bulldogs sitting as 12.5-point favorites in Atlanta.
Florida vs. Georgia odds, prediction
A lot of eyebrows were raised when Florida released its injury report Wednesday night.
Everybody expected that starting quarterback Aaron Philo, who missed the Gators’ win over Texas last time out, to be on the release, but his deputy, Tramell Jones, who started against the Longhorns, was also listed as questionable.
Whether head coach Jon Sumrall is playing mind games and forcing Georgia to prepare for three quarterbacks remains to be seen, but it’s hardly a good thing for the Gators to have both signal-callers nursing injuries.
It was already going to be tough sledding upsetting the Bulldogs, but the job only gets tougher with Philo and/or Jones operating at less than 100 percent.
But if we’re being honest, this handicap has more to do with the mismatch between Georgia’s offense and Florida’s defense.
The Bulldogs may be coming off a messy effort against Auburn, but their numbers with the ball are elite this season.
Georgia is the No. 2 offense in the country per SP+, and it ranks inside the top 10 in yards per play (7.0), points per play (.633), points per game (39.7), yards per rush (5.5) and yards per pass (9.3).
This is as balanced an attack as you will see in college football.
The Florida defense, on the other hand, is still searching for answers.
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The Gators grade out as the 50th-best defense in FBS, per SP+, and rank 87th in yards per play allowed (5.7). And the real issue is that Florida has no real strength without the ball.
They are mediocre at slowing down the run, allowing 4.0 yards per rush, and even worse against the pass, allowing 7.9 yards per attempt.
Georgia should have no issue putting up a crooked number on Florida, and it’s hard to see how the banged-up Gators will be able to do the same against an elite Bulldogs defense.
The Play: Georgia -12.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
