The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 5 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Ravens (-2.5) vs. BENGALS
It’s the Derrick Henry show in Cincinnati
The Bengals did get right against Carolina, but their defense is still struggling.
Baltimore is 7-3 against Cincinnati since 2019, including back-to-back victories.
The Ravens could bury the Bengals in Ohio.
Jets (+2.5) vs. VIKINGS
Somehow, Aaron Rodgers has never faced a Brian Flores-led defense as a head coach or defensive coordinator.
During this 4-0 run for the Vikings, they’ve confused the likes of Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy, Stroud and Jordan Love.
Rodgers is a master of dissecting coverages.
This line is an overreaction to the listless performances we saw against Denver.
Jets are in must-win territory.
SEAHAWKS (-6) vs. Giants
No Malik Nabers or Devin Singletary is a huge problem for Big Blue.
A team bereft of offensive talent is seeing injuries mount, and all of a sudden Daniel Jones is needed to carry the Giants to a win.
Spoiler alert: He won’t.
The Seahawks ride running back Kenneth Walker to victory here as the Giants go on life support.
Browns (+3.5) vs. COMMANDERS
Jayden Daniels is for real, that defense is not.
They are allowing 6.2 yards per carry since Week 3, a putrid figure that’s the second worst in the NFL.
Deshaun Watson is a shell of himself, but if Cleveland has any sense, it will lean on its defense and run game to snag a win.
TEXANS (-1) vs. Bills
Buffalo heads to the Great Plains this weekend but won’t get a king’s welcome.
The Bills are really banged up — missing top receiver Khalil Shakir, star pass rusher Von Miller (suspension) and defensive tackle Ed Oliver.
Josh Allen vs. C.J. Stroud should be plenty entertaining, but Houston is the best bet of the 1 p.m. slate.
Panthers (+4) vs. BEARS
Andy Dalton has breathed new life into the Panthers.
Carolina is sixth in the NFL in yards per pass attempt since they inserted him into the starting lineup.
Chicago’s defense has been better than advertised, and many are expecting a D’Andre Swift showcase this Sunday.
I’d temper expectations.
The Panthers are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry since Week 3, a top-10 unit in that span.
Carolina wins outright.
Dolphins (+1) vs. PATRIOTS
Tyler Huntley looked bad, and it’s never easy betting on bad teams like this.
To be clear, neither of these teams are good. But Raheem Mostert returns for Miami, and Odell Beckham Jr. should help as well.
What’s the difference between Jacoby Brissett and Huntley? Minuscule at best.
Too much talent here to bet on New England.
JAGUARS (-2.5) vs. Colts
Pick your poison.
Two bad teams that know each other very well face off.
The difference here isn’t just quarterback play.
The Colts’ only solid offensive weapon, Jonathan Taylor, is out for Sunday’s game.
Brian Thomas Jr. puts on a show as the Jaguars cruise against wannabe Cam Newton: Anthony Richardson, if he plays.
Cardinals (+7.5) vs. 49ERS
Teams that lose by 20 or more and are underdogs the following week by more than a field goal are 333-248-33 against the spread since 2003.
A 57 percent win and an 11 percent return on investment, the Cardinals have enough talent in this divisional matchup to grab a win.
Raiders (+2.5) vs. BRONCOS
Antonio Pierce is 9-3-1 against the spread in his coaching career.
Denver has lost its past eight meetings against the Raiders.
Though the Broncos defense has seemingly righted the ship and Davante Adams wants out of Vegas, that doesn’t mean Denver should be favored by three against anyone. Don’t ride the Broncos in this division game.
Packers (-3) vs. RAMS
Two elite coaches face off in a great bounceback spot for the talented Packers.
Green Bay is eighth in yards per carry (4.8) while the Rams have allowed 5.0 yards per carry, fifth-most.
Josh Jacobs has his coming out party for the Packers in a resounding victory.
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STEELERS (-2.5) vs. Cowboys
Anytime the Cowboys deal with injuries, they are in trouble.
A top-heavy roster means no depth, and the Dallas defense already bleeds against running backs.
The Cowboys have the worst graded run defense by far in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, and have allowed 300 rush yards in the past two weeks. Najee Harris and Justin Fields run to victory.
Monday
CHIEFS (-5.5) vs. Saints
Derek Carr immediately comes back down to earth and won’t have the run game to fall back on.
New Orleans has run the ball the fourth most in the NFL (101 total carries).
Kansas City’s defense is incredible against the run, allowing 3.8 yards per carry since Week 2, the third-best number in the NFL. It’s a bad matchup on the road for New Orleans.
Last week: 4-11-1
Season: 23-36-1.
