The college football world will have its eyes on Tuscaloosa Saturday night as No. 4 Alabama hosts No. 2 Georgia in a pivotal early-season SEC matchup.
Georgia is seeking revenge after Alabama’s victory in the SEC Championship last fall, while Kalen DeBoer would love nothing better than to get his first statement win as the Crimson Tide head coach against Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs.
Georgia vs. Alabama odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | -1.5 (-115) | -125 | o49.5 (-110) |
| Alabama | +1.5 (-105) | +105 | u49.5 (-110) |
When Georgia has the ball
The last time we saw Carson Beck, he struggled to move the ball against Kentucky’s defense two weeks ago before Georgia’s bye.
He finished with 160 passing yards on a 15-of-24 completion rate in a game the Bulldogs had just 12 first downs and 262 yards of offense. It was a performance that pushed the quarterback’s Heisman odds from 14/1 to 18/1.
That won’t cut it against an Alabama defense that has allowed the second-lowest passing success rate and ranks 11th in PFF’s coverage grades.
Keeping Beck out of obvious passing situations will be crucial, and the Bulldogs will lean on former Florida transfer running back Trevor Etienne on early downs.
Etienne, the brother of Jaguars RB Travis Etienne, has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over three years in the SEC and more than four yards after first contact per attempt.
Alabama, which allowed 150 yards after contact to South Florida in Week 2, has yet to face a running back of Etienne’s caliber.
When Alabama has the ball
Jalen Milroe’s improvement through three games has been impressive. He’s still not utilizing the intermediate part of the field at a high rate, but he has cut his mistakes down significantly; his turnover-worthy play rate is down from 2.8% to 1.4%.
Milroe remains one of the country’s best deep ball passers, having completed 7-of-14 passes of at least 20 yards for 302 yards and five touchdowns.
The Crimson Tide are loaded at wide receiver, but the player the Bulldogs need to most account for is true freshman Ryan Williams, who has caught 10 of 12 targets for 285 yards and four touchdowns through three games.
His elite deep speed, paired with Milroe’s rocket arm, puts immense pressure on the back end of the defense and will force the Bulldogs to maintain lighter boxes against the run.
If the Bulldogs can’t commit extra resources to stopping the run, that will open up opportunities for Milroe as a rusher and for the talented backfield duo of Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, which is averaging a combined nine yards per carry this season.
Georgia ranks just 95th in defensive rushing success rate, and it could struggle to stop the run on early downs.
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Georgia vs. Alabama pick
Since 2008, Georgia is 1-8 straight-up and 4-5 against the spread against Alabama, per Action Network.
After 113 consecutive home games as a favorite, Alabama is a home underdog in this matchup — the first time they’ve been a home ‘dog since November 2007.
The odds project a changing of the SEC guard in the post-Nick Saban era, but DeBoer has his team firing on all cylinders early this season.
Both teams will be well-prepared off a bye week, but I’m siding with the Crimson Tide’s offense, with Milroe and Williams providing the big-play threat in this game.
I’m backing Alabama as a rare home underdog in what has the potential to be the game of the year on Saturday night.
Best bet: Alabama moneyline (+105, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
