LAS VEGAS — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are rolling the dice in Sin City this week as they play a high-stakes match for swing-state Nevada’s six Electoral College votes.
And early-voting data indicate Republicans are the ones holding the hot dice.
Las Vegas is the heart of voter-rich Clark County: 70% of the state’s 1.9 million registered and active voters reside here.
Unsurprisingly, the campaigns have made time for many stops here — especially with the RealClearPolitics polling average giving Trump a slim 0.7-point Silver State lead — and plan more in the race’s final week.
More than 30% of registered Nevada voters have already cast their ballots, with more room to grow between now and Friday, when early voting ends.
Republicans are leading Democrats in early ballots statewide and behind by just under 6,000 ballots in massive Clark County.
That’s a huge shift in support.
Four years ago, Democrats had an early-voting lead of 54,000 ballots statewide and 66,000 in Clark County — meaning that county’s Democratic “firewall” is one-tenth the size today.
Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, the ex-prez’s daughter-in-law, will meet with women voters at a country-music bar in town Tuesday.
Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will rally youth support that same day at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, followed by a Wednesday appearance at an early-voting event.
Both candidates themselves will swoop into Las Vegas for campaign events on Halloween.
Harris will jet here for a rally with actress Jennifer Lopez and Mexican pop band Maná after she appeals for votes in the northern Nevada city of Reno.
Her last visit to Las Vegas was for a Univision town-hall broadcast Oct. 10, where a voter finally forced the veep to address what she conceded was an “unprecedented” nomination route
Trump will appear at an indoor arena a town over in Henderson for what’s likely to be a large, high-energy event similar to his Oct. 24 rally UNLV rally, where he promised to call Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on election night if he wins to jumpstart an end to Russia’s invasion.
Democrats need nonpartisans — Nevada’s moniker for those without a party registration — to vote heavily in their favor to win the state, concludes veteran Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston.
And that is not a lock.
Ralston says Democrats “have to start changing the electorate more to have a chance” given the steep odds of an Election Day turnaround with independent voters.
But he also believes 2024 “is a unicorn year” for Nevada voting patterns.
“It’s no wonder some Republicans are irrationally exuberant — or is it rationally exuberant?”
