For teams that aren’t playing in their conference championship games, this is it — the final chance to make a lasting impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
For some contenders, like Ole Miss, their regular-season résumé is now complete, and what happens in the fifth ranking on Tuesday night should be a strong indicator of their final placement on Selection Day. Others, like Miami, are banking on hope and help — and most importantly, one more win. It all began with the Egg Bowl on Friday — a game that not only kept Ole Miss in the playoff, but also technically in the SEC race.
That’s right — this thing is far from over, so check back after each game to see how the results will impact the playoff as the day unfolds.
Texas 27, Texas A&M 17
Rivalry Week presented its first shakeup of the top four when No. 16 Texas beat No. 3 Texas A&M — but it might not be all that jarring in the fifth ranking. The Aggies will likely drop to the 4-6 range behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins including a 35-10 drubbing of … Texas. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama), and has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game. The question is just how far Texas A&M will fall now that it has joined No. 5 Texas Tech, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Ole Miss in the one-loss club. The Aggies entered the weekend with a noticeable edge over Texas Tech in both strength of record (23 to 56) and strength of schedule (1 to 10). It’s possible the committee only drops the Aggies one spot, flipping them with Georgia, which means they’d still be in position to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed. There would be a strong debate, though, about whether the Aggies, Texas Tech or Oregon, the latter which has impressed the committee lately by ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, deserves the highest seeding. The Aggies’ problem now is that they’d have to finish in the top four as an at-large team because they just got knocked out of the SEC title game.
While Texas now has arguably the best win in the country, it probably won’t be enough to catapult it into the top-10 as a three-loss team. Even with some upsets above them, it’s unlikely Texas would get higher than No. 12.
Indiana 56, Purdue 3
Indiana clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game with its win against rival Purdue, locking in a CFP bid and beefing up its chances at keeping a first-round bye on Selection Day. The Hoosiers, who have been the committee’s No. 2 team in each of the first four rankings, still have a chance of grabbing the No. 1 spot in Tuesday’s ranking if Ohio State loses to Michigan. If the Buckeyes lose and Oregon wins Indiana will face Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If Michigan wins and Oregon loses the Hoosiers will face Michigan for the conference title.
The question is whether IU can maintain a top-four seed and a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up. If Indiana lost the title game, the committee would consider where their opponent was ranked and how close the game was. The Hoosiers would also be compared with other top one-loss teams, but playing a ranked opponent in the conference championship game — win or lose — would boost IU’s record strength by the committee’s metric.
Georgia 16, Georgia Tech 9
Georgia should keep its place as the committee’s top one-loss team following its win against rival Georgia Tech. Georgia’s Oct. 18 win against Ole Miss, along with their win at Tennessee and drubbing of Texas, impressed the committee. The Bulldogs’ consistency on offense and defense has also played well with the committee. Georgia’s first-round bye would only be in question at this point if it finishes as a two-loss SEC runner-up.
Barring an unusual combination of ACC results, No. 23 Georgia Tech will be out of the playoff at 9-3. The only way the Yellow Jackets can extend their playoff hope is through the ACC championship game. They entered the weekend with a 1.5% chance of making the game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19
With its win against rival Mississippi State on Friday, Ole Miss likely locked up a playoff spot and remains in a strong position to host a first-round home game. If Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday, Ole Miss will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Even if it doesn’t, though, the one-loss Rebels should still be a CFP lock.
As for the uncertainty still looming around coach Lane Kiffin, if Ole Miss turns to an interim head coach for the playoff, the selection committee could consider that. CFP protocol states the group will consider “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoff because Kiffin left for another job, but it could get dinged a spot or two if the committee thinks the team won’t be the same without him.
Utah 31, Kansas 21
No. 13 Utah punctuated its résumé with a win against 5-7 Kansas, but it’s still unlikely to reach the playoff without multiple upsets of teams above it — especially after just being leapfrogged by No. 12 Miami in the latest CFP ranking. Even with a win, to reach the Big 12 championship game, Utah still needs Texas Tech to lose and for both BYU and Arizona State to win. The Utes’ best hope to reach the CFP is still as an at-large team.
Getting that bid isn’t inconceivable if a combination of two-loss teams above them lose. If Oklahoma, Alabama and Miami lose, it would be difficult for any of them to stay in the top 12 as three-loss teams. Utah would need at least two of them to lose to move into the top 10, which is where it would need to be to actually be seeded in the field. The No. 11 and No. 12 teams this year will be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions.
