Moving patterns over the past four years could play a role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, according to a new report from the Realtor.com® economic research team.
With just weeks to go before the election pitting Donald Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris, the analysis suggests which states are relatively more popular with red or blue home shoppers, based on Realtor.com online home shopping traffic data from January 2021 through September 2024.
The report finds that of the seven key swing states considered competitive in this election cycle, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina have drawn relatively greater interest from red home shoppers.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin and Nevada seem more popular with blue home shoppers.
The two remaining swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, showed mixed results that didn’t indicate a clear trend one way or the other.
If the other swing states end up voting along the partisan lines indicated in the report, this could mean that these two states could determine the outcome of the election.
The report offers a window into how recent migration trends might affect the election, but it is not a prediction of state-level election outcomes, which will hinge on a myriad of factors, including voter preferences on key issues.
“The influence of migration on election outcomes is a compelling topic of discussion, sparking interest in how shifting populations might reshape the political landscape,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales.”
How the study tracked red and blue home shopper interest
To assess how recent migration trends might affect the 2024 presidential election, the study combined Realtor.com online home shopping traffic data from January 2021 through September 2024 with 2020 presidential election county-level results.
Using those election results, the economic research team determined the likelihood of each online home view being associated with a red, blue, or independent voter.
For example, if 60% of voters in the 2020 election favored the Democratic candidate, then the team assumed that 60% of online real estate listing views from that county are from blue shoppers.
The study does not account for factors like income, age, or housing preferences that could affect online home shopping behaviors, and assumes the voting preferences of the typical home shopper are proportional to their current county of residence.
Based on this assumption, between January 2021 and September 2024, 56.5% of online traffic on Realtor.com came from blue shoppers, 41.7% from red shoppers, and the remaining 1.8% from independent shoppers.
The study then compares the relative shares of total out-of-state red and blue shopping traffic received by homes in each state, as well as each state’s retention rate of red and blue home shoppers.
For example, over the past four years, Wisconsin has received 2.35% of the total out-of-state buyer interest from blue shoppers, more than the 2.23% total share from red shoppers.
Wisconsin also retained a higher share of searches from blue shoppers searching within the state (71.52%) than red shoppers (70.7%).
As a result of these trends, the report postulates that Wisconsin could shift bluer in 2024. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, won the state by 0.63% in 2020, after Trump won there by 0.77% in 2016.
How the study tracked red and blue home shopper interest
To assess how recent migration trends might affect the 2024 presidential election, the study combined Realtor.com online home shopping traffic data from January 2021 through September 2024 with 2020 presidential election county-level results.
Using those election results, the economic research team determined the likelihood of each online home view being associated with a red, blue, or independent voter.
For example, if 60% of voters in the 2020 election favored the Democratic candidate, then the team assumed that 60% of online real estate listing views from that county are from blue shoppers.
The study does not account for factors like income, age, or housing preferences that could affect online home shopping behaviors, and assumes the voting preferences of the typical home shopper are proportional to their current county of residence.
Based on this assumption, between January 2021 and September 2024, 56.5% of online traffic on Realtor.com came from blue shoppers, 41.7% from red shoppers, and the remaining 1.8% from independent shoppers.
The study then compares the relative shares of total out-of-state red and blue shopping traffic received by homes in each state, as well as each state’s retention rate of red and blue home shoppers.
For example, over the past four years, Wisconsin has received 2.35% of the total out-of-state buyer interest from blue shoppers, more than the 2.23% total share from red shoppers.
Wisconsin also retained a higher share of searches from blue shoppers searching within the state (71.52%) than red shoppers (70.7%).
As a result of these trends, the report postulates that Wisconsin could shift bluer in 2024. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, won the state by 0.63% in 2020, after Trump won there by 0.77% in 2016.
Overall, more states could shift red, according to study
Across the country, the study found that migration patterns suggest that 22 states could shift to become more red, while eight states plus Washington, DC, could trend more blue, compared with the last election.
Twelve currently red states—Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming—could trend redder.
Seven blue states—California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, and Washington—could also trend redder, the study found.
The currently red states that could shift bluer were Alaska, Florida, and Ohio. Meanwhile, four blue strongholds—Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, DC, and Maine—could trend even bluer.
Twenty states displayed mixed trends that did not suggest a clear shift, according to the study.
While a state may shift redder or bluer due to migration patterns, the impact is likely not large enough to switch a state’s presidential vote, except possibly in the seven hotly contested swing states.
Red and blue home shoppers both favor the South
The study finds that both blue and red out-of-state home shoppers showed great interest in homes in the South, a trend probably driven by the region’s relatively affordable housing markets and warmer climate.
Florida was the top online home search state for both affiliations, with 12.9% of all blue shoppers and 12.8% of all red shoppers.
The Sunshine State also had the highest retention rate among blue shoppers, with 76.1% of blue traffic from Florida remaining in-state, compared with 74.4% of red traffic.
Among red shoppers, Michigan had the highest retention rate, with 75.56% of red traffic from Michigan remaining in-state, compared with 74.21% of blue traffic.
