Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is lagging behind his GOP challenger by eight points in a new poll, boosting Republicans’ hopes of flipping the Senate.
Tester (D-Mont.) slipped behind Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, 41% to 49% when third-party candidates are included in the contest that could very will tip the balance of power in the Senate, according to fresh AARP polling.
When the seven-fingered dirt farmer is pitted against Sheehy head-to-head, he still trailed with 45% support to 51%, per the poll.
The Senate is split 51 senators caucusing with the Democrats to 49 Republicans. West Virginia is widely expected to flip Republican, in party due to Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) not seeking reelection.
That would bring the Senate down to a tie, which means that the vice president casts the tiebreaker and it’s why Republicans are hoping to poach at least one more seat from Democrats.
Montana is perhaps the next-deepest red state after West Virginia with a senator caucusing with the Democrats.
There has been somewhat sparse polling of the Montana Senate contest, though Sheehy enjoys a 5.2 percentage point advantage in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls.
Former President Donald Trump, 78, won the Treasure State by over 16 percentage points in the 2020 election. Tester was first sworn into the upper chamber back in 2007. He was one of the dozens of Democrats who nudged President Biden, 81, to step aside back in July.
Tester narrowly eked out a win during the 2018 blue wave year against Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.)
Rosendale had flirted with vying for the Senate seat again and even briefly tossed his hat into the ring earlier this year, before promptly pulling out days later. Rosendale later opted against defending his House seat.
Top GOP brass jockeyed aggressively behind the scenes against Rosendale’s potential Senate bid amid a greater emphasis on candidate quality this election cycle.
With a keen eye on his home state, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.) reportedly appealed to Trump to back Sheehy.
Democrats must defend 23 seats, including three held by Independents, compared to the Republicans’ 11 seats in the Senate this cycle.
The Cook Political Report currently ranks Montana, Ohio and Michigan as tossups.
The AARP survey sampled 1,064 likely voters between Aug. 25-29. This included a representative sample of 600 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points and an oversample of 464 voters featuring voters over the age of 50.
AARP commissioned the Republican-leaning Fabrizio Ward firm and Democratic-leaning David Binder Research to conduct the poll.
