There’s a difference between galvanization and a half-baked plan.
The Islanders’ shocking decision to swap Patrick Roy for Peter DeBoer behind the bench with only four games left to play is the latter disguised as the former.
This act of desperation while they hover the playoff cutline worked to at least snap the Isles’ four-game drought. They downed the Maple Leafs 5-3 on Thursday at UBS Arena in a backs-against-the-wall effort.
But it’s all uphill from here.
That was two points earned against a down-and-out Toronto club that resembled a preseason iteration of their lineup. Now, them and their settling bench boss must win out against the likes of three playoff contenders — starting with the Senators on Saturday afternoon.
Ottawa has a three point-lead on the Isles, hence its “sure thing” -3500 price to make the playoffs contrasted to the Isles’ +176 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Islanders vs. Senators prediction, best bet
The one thing the Isles do have going for them is that all three of these games will be at home, where their special teams have been sharper and they generate more offense. Even so, they are even-money underdogs on Saturday, the first leg of a back-to-back this weekend.
Deboer is a decorated NHL coach, but he’s not a Genie. Instead of backing or fading his effort to save the Islanders, I’d rather shoot for a messy hockey game. The modest -130 tag on the Over for the 5.5 goal total makes the Isles’ hair-on-fire condition worth the play.
While the Islanders chase their tail in April again, the Senators have made tangible steps forward this season after breaking an eight-year playoff slump last year. Ottawa is ranked inside Money Puck’s top-five clubs in both expected goal rate and shot attempt differential at 5-on-5 play.
If Linus Ullmark can pull it together in goal, this is not a wild card team you want to draw in the first round. Their goaltending woes have sunk them to 30th overall in team save percentage despite the Sens leading hockey with the lowest expected goal rate per 60 minutes.
The Sens’ brute force makes up for it via an unwavering forecheck that executes like playoff hockey.
Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Cozens and Ridly Greig have combined their physicality and scoring touch to rank as the NHL’s top overall line in expected goals rate. The third line of Shane Pinto, Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins ranks second.
This defensive corps has been mired by injuries since the Olympic break, but it got an elite puck-mover back in Thomas Chabot, who returned to the lineup on Thursday after a speedy recovery from a broken arm.
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Of course, the brightest part of this Islanders season has been their own blue-line x-factor in Matthew Schaefer, who tied Brian Leetch’s record for most points by a rookie defenseman on Thursday. The odds-on favorite to claim the Calder Trophy for the NHL’s most outstanding rookie has boosted the Isles’ future with generational defensive awareness paired with offensive upside.
He leads all rookies in ice time, has generated the second-most shots and points on the team while having produced 7.3 goals above expected. In case that stat means nothing to you, Schaefer’s statistical probability of a shot becoming a goal — based on quality — is much higher than the average player.
Anyone who has purchased a ticket to UBS Arena this season has had to jog their memory the last time the Isles’ offensive zone possessions have been as exciting.
No matter how much tape DeBoer catches up on, I’m looking for this game to be combustible.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
