New York Jets season is on life support after a shocking loss to the New England Patriots, and they have virtually no margin for error for the rest of the year.
On Thursday, they’ll welcome a Houston Texans team as surprising favorites despite the road team having won four of its last five games at MetLife Stadium.
Who will come out on top in this prime-time AFC battle?
Let’s dive into the matchups and find some betting value.
When the Texans have the ball
I’ve been unimpressed with Houston’s offense for much of this season.
Despite C.J. Stroud being one of the league’s brightest young quarterbacks, the Texans rank 29th among NFL offenses in early-down success rate, a predictive metric for long-term offensive production.
Houston has struggled to maintain consistency on offense, especially with superstar receiver Nico Collins sidelined.
Stefon Diggs is now out for the season after suffering a torn ACL.
That puts the Texans in a tough spot against a Jets defense that still ranks second in dropback success rate allowed this season.
Stroud struggled against the Jets defense last year, completing just 10 of 23 passes for 91 yards while taking four sacks in a 30-6 New York win.
That was with Collins on the field, and it’s tough to envision Stroud lighting up the scoreboard without two starting receivers.
Stroud has also been significantly worse on the road in his career.
He’s posted 8.6 yards per attempt and a 105.7 passer rating at home, compared to 6.9 yards per attempt and a 90.5 passer rating on the road.
When the Jets have the ball
Jets trade acquisition Davante Adams can’t fix the team’s most significant issue— an offensive line that has significantly underperformed preseason expectations.
New York ranks 24th among NFL teams in pass-block win rate this year, and Aaron Rodgers will likely be under significant duress against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
The duo leads the league’s fourth-best defensive line by pass-rush win rate.
Rodgers’ lack of mobility in the pocket has become a significant issue, especially as he’s dealing with various lower-body ailments behind an offensive line that can’t protect him.
After last week’s game, Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux said, “He can’t move back there … he doesn’t look mobile at all.”
The Jets will likely also struggle to run the ball.
New York ranks 30th in adjusted offensive line yards, and they are facing a Houston defensive line that ranks sixth in defensive line yards and second in run-stop win rate.
That will likely lead to several third-and-long situations for Rodgers, which will be problematic against Houston’s third-ranked pass defense by DVOA.
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Final verdict
The Texans’ losses of Collins and Diggs are crushing for an offense that has already struggled to maintain consistency this season.
This looks like a brutal spot for Stroud on the road against a defense that can still get pressure and hold up in coverage.
Meanwhile, the Jets’ poor offensive line will be wholly overmatched against a stout Texans front seven, leading to obvious passing situations for an immobile Rodgers behind an offensive line that can’t protect him against an elite pass rush.
I trust both defenses on Thursday Night Football.
Recommendation: Under 42 (-110, ESPN BET)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
