The NFL’s International Series returns this Sunday as the 2-2 Jets battle the 4-0 Vikings in London.
Minnesota is a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is hovering around 40.
The Vikings’ incredible 4-0 start is largely because of the magic of defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
He creates confusion and havoc by stacking defenders at the line of scrimmage and either blitzing everyone or no one — though Minnesota ultimately ranks second among NFL defenses in blitz rate (41 percent).
The Jets are vulnerable to the blitz and are still missing right tackle Morgan Moses.
His replacement, rookie Olu Fashanu, allowed five pressures in last week’s loss against Denver.
It was a defeat that saw them score just nine points, because quarterback Aaron Rodgers continues to struggle under pressure (52 percent completion rate, zero big-time throws).
Though I worry about the Jets’ offense, they still own a top-10 defense by EPA per Play and Success Rate allowed.
They’ve been weaker stopping the run in the front seven, but they have the NFL’s best secondary by Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades.
Sauce Gardner should keep Sam Darnold from completing too many downfield passes to Justin Jefferson.
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These teams have two of the league’s best stop units.
The Jets and Vikings are a combined 5-2-1 to the Under, and I expect more of the same between Minnesota’s front seven and New York’s secondary.
THE PLAY: Jets-Vikings Under 40.5 (-110, FanDuel)
