New York, with seven competitive races for the US House of Representatives, will again play a major role in deciding which party controls the chamber.
Republicans hold a slim 220-212 seat edge in the House, thanks in large part to Congressional Democrats losing four New York seats in 2022.
On Long Island, Democrats are gunning to unseat freshman GOP incumbents Anthony D’Esposito and Nick LaLota.
With former President Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket helping trend parts of Long Island red, LaLota is positioned to beat Democrat John Avlon in the 1st, which includes two-thirds of Suffolk County.
In the race for the 4th in Nassau County, a recent poll had D’Esposito and Democrat Laura Gillen in an essential dead heat.
However, a Newsday/Siena College survey released days earlier showed Gillen with a staggering 12-point lead in the district, which President Biden won handily in 2020.
Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is trying to hold off ex-state Assemblyman Mike LiPetri and continue representing District 3, which covers Nassau County’s wealthy north shore and parts of Queens.
In other swing districts, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan and Republican Rep. Mike Lawler are favored to retain their Hudson Valley House seats, according to recent polls. Ryan’s Republican challenger is Alison Esposito, a retired NYPD deputy inspector, while Lawler is up against ex-Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones.
However, upstate seats held by Republicans Rep. Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams are in danger of flipping to Democrats without a key Trump bump on Election Day.
Democrat Josh Riley is seeking to unseat Molinaro after losing the same race two years ago by less than two percentage points, while Williams faces state Sen. John Mannion (D-Syracuse).
If Democrats fail to regain control of the House, it would be a “national embarrassment” for Gov. Kathy Hochul, state Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs, and House Minority Leader and Brooklyn Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, said longtime Democratic political strategist Hank Sheinkopf.
“New York will again be blamed again for destroying Democrats’ chance to take control of Congress,” he said.
Republicans are gaining steam in suburban parts of the predominantly Democratic Empire State — in part because of New York’s sanctuary city laws, he added.
“There’s a general fear in the suburbs that migrants, New York City crime and chaos will seep across the Nassau County border, across the Westchester County border and into the Hudson Valley,” he said.
