The entire NBA season is a marathon, but the post-All-Star portion of the schedule is a sprint. The Knicks come out of the break with a tough test against the Pistons, one they have failed miserably this season.
This game should have plenty of juice considering their recent history. In both of their games this season, the Knicks suffered 30-point losses on the road. They’ve been unable to summon the toughness that propelled them to a series win against the Pistons in the playoffs last season.
Betting markets opened this line at Knicks -2.5, and that has moved to Knicks -4.5 since.
Knicks vs. Pistons odds, prediction
It’s important to note that the Pistons will be shorthanded for this game. All-Star center Jalen Duren and backup center Isaiah Stewart are both suspended for their fight in Charlotte before the break.
That will have some impact, with Paul Reed forced to fill in at center, but the Pistons didn’t have a full team in either of their two previous wins. Duren and Tobias Harris missed the first game in January, and Duren sat again when they played earlier this month.
The Knicks were also missing Karl-Anthony Towns, but their most recent meeting was instructive. The Pistons essentially decided to blitz Jalen Brunson and cut the head off the snake. The defense on him was so suffocating that Brunson finished with his worst shooting night of the season: 4-for-20 from the floor and 0-for-8 from beyond the arc.
Ausar Thompson was in Brunson’s jersey all night and held him to four points on 2-for-8 from the floor as his primary defender per NBA Advanced Stats tracking data. Brunson insisted on bringing the ball up the floor despite the defensive pressure, and it played into Detroit’s hands.
The Knicks should be concerned about their ability to apply similar pressure to Cade Cunningham in this game. OG Anunoby sat out two weeks ago, along with Towns, and the defense was noticeably worse. The Knicks couldn’t stop the ball with Cunningham at the point of attack or with backup guard Daniss Jenkins on the floor.
The repeated breakdowns at the point of attack left the Knicks defense scrambling, and the Pistons hit 17 3-pointers, tied for the second-most they’ve knocked down in a game this season.
After watching these teams play twice this season, it’s clear that the Pistons bring their A game for the Knicks, but that hasn’t been reciprocated. The Knicks clearly have the talent to play at or above the level of the Pistons for stretches, but nightly consistency on both ends of the floor is the reason why the Pistons have a 5.5-game lead on the rest of the conference.
It would be a huge red flag if the Knicks don’t win this game. I don’t understand why this line has moved from 2.5 based on recent results, but I’ll gladly take the two points of value on the spread. I think the Pistons push the Knicks to the brink at The Garden and give them another tough test right out of the gates.
The Pick: Pistons +4.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
