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NFL Nation, ESPNSep 27, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
The Week 4 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 4 slate, including the red-hot Vikings visiting the Packers and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens hosting Josh Allen and the Bills. It all culminates with a pair of “Monday Night Football” matchups — the Titans visit the Dolphins (7:30 p.m. ET) on ESPN, and the Lions host the Seahawks (8:15 p.m. ET) on ABC/ESPN+. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
NO-ATL | LAR-CHI | MIN-GB
PIT-IND | DEN-NYJ | PHI-TB
CIN-CAR | JAX-HOU | WSH-ARI
NE-SF | CLE-LV | KC-LAC
BUF-BAL | TEN-MIA | SEA-DET
Thursday: DAL-NYG
Saints (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ATL -2.5 (42.5 O/U)
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints are missing Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy (groin) for at least a month after he was placed on IR this week. Running back Alvin Kamara is also banged up (hips/ribs), and Cesar Ruiz is dealing with a knee injury. The Saints need to get their run game going again after their worst offensive output of the season against the Eagles last week, but they’ll have to do it with a host of injuries on the offensive side. — Katherine Terrell
Falcons storyline to watch: Can the Falcons’ running game get back on track after Bijan Robinson mustered only 1.9 yards per carry against the Chiefs in Week 3? Since the beginning of 2023, Robinson has amassed 950 yards on runs outside the tackles, second only to Christian McCaffrey (1,018), per NFL Next Gen Stats. But the Saints have been strong in that department, allowing only 142 yards on rushes outside the tackles this season, the ninth-lowest total in the league. — Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: The Falcons have six third-down conversions this season, which is the fewest in the NFL. Their 22% third-down conversion rate is the fourth worst in the league.
Bold prediction: Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss will lead the league in combined tackles in Week 4. The Saints are the most run-heavy team in the league, and my tackles model gives him the third-highest projection of any player this week. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts. The tight end position in fantasy has been as barren as an apocalyptic wasteland this season. Pitts has just eight receptions and 24.6 fantasy points so far, but he could be in for a breakout against the Saints. Last week, New Orleans gave up 10 receptions and 27 fantasy points to tight end Dallas Goedert. So far, the Saints have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: This is the first time the Falcons are favored over the Saints since Week 3 of 2018. The Saints were favored in 11 straight meetings. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 22, Saints 21
Moody’s pick: Falcons 27, Saints 21
Walder’s pick: Saints 29, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: NO, 51.1% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: ‘We’ll learn from it’: How Saints plan to bounce back after loss vs. Eagles … Coach: Saints aren’t dirty despite Eagles’ claims
Rams (1-2) at Bears (1-2)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CHI -3 (41.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to watch: Rams QB Matthew Stafford needs 223 passing yards to pass Eli Manning’s 57,023 mark for the 10th most in NFL history. In his career, he has averaged 274.3 passing yards per game against Chicago, the most all time by a quarterback with 10 games played against a team, according to ESPN Research. Stafford might have his work cut out, though, as it’s the second week in a row the Rams won’t have star receivers Puka Nacua (knee) or Cooper Kupp (ankle). — Sarah Barshop
Bears storyline to watch: Bears WR Keenan Allen returned to practice for the first time in two weeks while recovering from a heel injury. Allen aggravated a preexisting injury during his Bears debut in Week 1 (11 targets, 4 catches, 29 yards versus Tennessee) and could provide an important layer to the passing offense against the Rams. “It’s going to be great for our offense,” quarterback Caleb Williams said. “It’s just something else that the defense has to worry about throughout this week and then obviously on game day … His special talent of getting open in a phone booth is going to be great for us.” — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Rams running back Kyren Williams has had six straight games with a rushing TD dating back to last season, which is tied for the third-longest streak in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Bears defensive tackle Andrew Billings will record at least half a sack for the first time since 2022. Billings is quietly off to a nice start rushing the passer, with a 21% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (fourth best at the position). He has never cracked double digits in a season! — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bears wide receiver DJ Moore. He had a season-high 8 receptions, 78 yards and 15.2 fantasy points in Week 3. Moore leads the team in routes run and should stay busy against a Rams defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Rams are 4-10-1 against the spread as road underdogs since 2022. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Rams 24, Bears 17
Moody’s pick: Rams 31, Bears 19
Walder’s pick: Bears 23, Rams 20
FPI prediction: CHI, 49.9% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Williams’ mom helped him achieve his NFL dream … How a failed goal-line series reflects the Bears’ struggles
0:48
The numbers to know behind Kyren William’s Week 3 fantasy performance
Check out some key stats and figures from Kyren Williams’ game in Week 3 vs. the Bears.
Vikings (3-0) at Packers (2-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: GB -2.5 (43.5 O/U)
Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings have taken five offensive snaps this season while trailing, by far the lowest total in the NFL. (The average is 88.) That has surely helped QB Sam Darnold‘s transition back into the starting lineup. The next step could come as soon as Sunday. How will the Vikings play if they are behind for an extended period of a game? Do they have what it takes to make up a deficit, especially in a rivalry road game? — Kevin Seifert
Packers storyline to watch: While the Vikings lead the NFL with 16 sacks, they might want to think twice about blitzing if Packers QB Jordan Love (knee) plays. Minnesota blitzed Love on 58% of his dropbacks the last time the two teams played (Week 17 of last season), the highest rate he has ever been blitzed. Love posted the fifth-best Total QBR (83) in any start during his career. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Vikings won at Green Bay in Week 8 last season. They haven’t won consecutive road games at Lambeau Field since winning three straight from 1991 to 1993.
Bold prediction: Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed scores a touchdown. Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. is off to a rough start, allowing 2.2 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s almost a full yard above the average for the position. Although Murphy lines up all over, he does spend time in the slot, which means he’ll surely have some snaps marking Reed. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Vikings running back Aaron Jones. He started his professional career with the Packers but left this offseason after Green Bay asked him to take a pay cut. So yes, I’m buying into the revenge game narrative. Jones has been phenomenal for a Vikings offense that ranks fourth in points per game (26). Also, the Packers’ defense is struggling, sitting at 25th in run stop win rate (29.1%). Jones has had 16 or more touches and 19 or more fantasy points in two of three games. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 8-2 ATS on the road since the start of last season (9-2 ATS in past 11 road games). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 30, Packers 24
Moody’s pick: Packers 27, Vikings 26
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Vikings 24
FPI prediction: GB, 55.5% (by an average of 2.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jones eyes Lambeau Leap in first visit vs. Packers … Packers’ defense breaking out behind McKinney’s 3 INTs
Steelers (3-0) at Colts (1-2)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: PIT -2 (40.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: Through three weeks, the Colts have only two more total rushing yards than the Steelers, but Indy’s run game has been far more efficient. Led by running back Jonathan Taylor, the Colts are averaging 5.4 yards per rush and have scored five rushing touchdowns. The Steelers, meanwhile, are ranked second with 108 rush attempts but are averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. After neutralizing J.K. Dobbins and the Chargers in Week 3, the Steelers’ run defense will be tasked with slowing down another formidable attack. Pittsburgh could also potentially be without RB Jaylen Warren, who’s dealing with a knee injury. — Brooke Pryor
Colts storyline to watch: Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt has had a consistent impact in games he has played against the Colts. In five career meetings with Indianapolis, Watt has produced 5.5 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, 15 tackles and 2 forced fumbles. In their last meeting (Week 15 of last season), Watt notched a pair of sacks and two tackles for loss. Meanwhile, the Colts’ offensive line is off to an impressive start, currently ranking sixth in pass block win rate (65.5%). Indianapolis has allowed just four sacks, tied for third best. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Watt currently has 99.5 sacks in 107 career games. If he records another half-sack within his next five games, he will be the second-fastest player to reach 100 career sacks since the stat became official in 1982. Hall of Famer Reggie White reached the milestone in 96 games.
Bold prediction: Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. will record more than 90 receiving yards. I predicted a version of this last week and it fell flat, but I’m coming back because the numbers are too compelling. Pittman Jr. has converted just 23% of his targeted air yards into completed air yards, fifth lowest for a receiver with at least 45 routes this season. He’s not that guy, so we should expect positive regression. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Steelers quarterback Justin Fields. He put up a season-high 18.4 fantasy points against the Chargers on Sunday. Since entering the league in 2021, he has 11 games with both a passing and rushing touchdown, ranking third behind Josh Allen (21) and Jalen Hurts (17). Fields should find success against a Colts team that has allowed an average of 16.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Also, Indianapolis has given up the second-most rushing yards per game to opponents (179). See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Since 2018, the Colts are 6-10 ATS as home underdogs (1-8 ATS as home underdogs of 3 points or less). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 20, Steelers 10
Moody’s pick: Steelers 27, Colts 17
Walder’s pick: Colts 24, Steelers 19
FPI prediction: PIT, 53.1% (by an average of 1.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Next man up: Herbig coming up clutch … Colts QB Richardson struggling for accuracy
Broncos (1-2) at Jets (2-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -7.5 (39.5 O/U)
Broncos storyline to watch: When opposing defenses consistently pressure QB Bo Nix, he has been erratic — throwing two interceptions in each of Denver’s two losses. But when largely unencumbered, as he was in this past Sunday’s win against Tampa Bay, Nix completed 69% of his throws with no sacks and no turnovers. The Jets sack quarterbacks on a league-high 16.8% of pass attempts and do it largely with four-man pressures. That means Nix will likely have to decode crowded coverage while under duress. How Nix fares with that will have a lot to say about whether Denver’s uptick on offense in Tampa was a one-week respite or a sign of better things to come. — Jeff Legwold
Jets storyline to watch: The Aaron Rodgers-led offense is much improved from last season even though WR Garrett Wilson (15 catches, 150 yards, 1 TD) has been relatively quiet. Each week, Wilson draws the opponent’s top cornerback, with safety help over the top. The Jets fully expect the Broncos to use star corner Pat Surtain II on Wilson for a majority of the snaps. When they faced each other last season, Surtain was the nearest defender on Wilson on 20 of 29 pass routes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Wilson was held to one catch for 12 yards on those plays. If teams want to focus on Wilson, Rodgers can rely on others such as tight end Tyler Conklin. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: Nix has two rushing touchdowns and no passing TDs, making him the only starting QB this season with multiple rushing scores and zero passing scores through the first three games.
Bold prediction: Jets right tackle Olu Fashanu will record a pass block win rate under 80% in his starting debut in place of the injured Morgan Moses (knee). Most rookie tackles, even first-rounders like Fashanu, struggle their first season. Fashanu is also squaring up against LB Jonathon Cooper, who is off to a nice start with a 21% pass rush win rate at edge (14th best). — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Conklin. The Jets tight end had a career-high 93 yards and scored 14.3 fantasy points in Week 3. He’s in a great spot to repeat that versus the Broncos. Why? The Broncos’ defense shut down Bucs WR Mike Evans in Week 3, and Wilson will get similar attention. That leaves more opportunities for Conklin, who has run the third-most routes on the team. In regular-season games where he has had at least six targets, Conklin has averaged 14.0 fantasy points. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Broncos are 3-4 outright when getting at least 5 points under coach Sean Payton (4-3 ATS). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Jets 21, Broncos 16
Moody’s pick: Jets 24, Broncos 16
Walder’s pick: Jets 23, Broncos 16
FPI prediction: NYJ, 69.9% (by an average of 8.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Badie emerges to boost struggling Broncos rushing attack … The Killer B’s: How the Jets’ RB duo is balancing offense … How Broncos’ pass rush has emerged … Rodgers: Jets need to prove they can handle prosperity
Eagles (2-1) at Buccaneers (2-1)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -2 (42.5 O/U)
Eagles storyline to watch: Quarterback Jalen Hurts is posting some of the best passing numbers of his career early in the season. He has completed 70.6% of his throws — well above his career average of 63.8%. He is fourth in passing yards (772), first in lowest off-target percentage (6.5%) and has a QBR of 60.9. The one issue is turnovers: He is tied for the second-most giveaways in the NFL through three weeks with six. With receivers A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) both dealing with injuries, it’s imperative that Hurts plays clean football against the Bucs. — Tim McManus
Buccaneers storyline to watch: A 26-7 pummeling by the Broncos thwarted the Bucs’ hopes of a 3-0 start, and now the Eagles are hoping to enact the same type of postseason revenge the Bucs got on the Lions two weeks ago. The good news for Tampa Bay is that it might get back some key players, as right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion) and defensive tackle Vita Vea (knee) practiced this week. So far this season, the Bucs have mustered only a league-low two quarterback sacks, and they surrendered 12 sacks over the past two weeks. The Bucs need to regain control of the trenches as they enter their most challenging stretch of the season. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Bucs receiver Chris Godwin has recorded a receiving touchdown in each of the first three games of this season; he is seeking to join Mike Evans (2020) as the only Buccaneers players with a touchdown reception in the team’s first four games of a season.
Bold prediction: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley has his third 100-plus-yard rushing game in four tries. The Bucs rank 28th in EPA per play, and with Brown, Smith and Lane Johnson (concussion) all possibly missing the game, Philadelphia is going to have to find another way to move the ball. — Walder
Injuries: Eagles | Buccaneers
Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Godwin. He has seen eight or more targets and scored at least 17.3 fantasy points in three straight games, working mostly from the slot. He faced the Commanders and Lions in Week 1 and Week 2, respectively, who both struggle against slot receivers. Godwin then capitalized in Week 3 against a Broncos secondary focused on Evans. Now in Week 4, he’s up against an Eagles defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Eagles have covered eight straight games when the line is between plus-3 and minus-3. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Buccaneers 21
Moody’s pick: Eagles 34, Buccaneers 24
Walder’s pick: Eagles 20, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 61.2% (by an average of 4.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Hurts hopes to buck his trend of poor performance vs. Tampa … How the Bucs rebound after ‘complete team collapse’ in Week 3
2:21
Stephen A. turns the heat off Sirianni and on to Eagles players
Stephen A. Smith says Jalen Hurts and the rest of the Eagles players deserve to be criticized more than Nick Sirianni.
Bengals (0-3) at Panthers (1-2)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CIN -4.5 (46.5 O/U)
Bengals storyline to watch: This will be QB Andy Dalton‘s fourth game against the Bengals, whom he played for from 2011 to 2019. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has played a blend of zone and man coverage against him in the previous meetings, and Dalton’s QBR is significantly worse when Cincinnati is in zone coverage (31). Last week, however, Washington’s Jayden Daniels feasted on Cincinnati’s zone with a 95.8 QBR, the second-best mark against the Bengals since 2020. — Ben Baby
Panthers storyline to watch: Dalton was stellar last week with three touchdown passes and 319 yards passing in his first start of the season, giving life to what had been a lifeless offense with Bryce Young under center. But recent history doesn’t suggest that he will put up big numbers this week. Thirteen QBs who didn’t begin the 2023 season as the starter won their first start last season. Of those, only 10 got a second start, and they were 1-9 in their second game. — David Newton
Stat to know: Even with a 36-22 win in Week 3, the Panthers’ minus-46 point differential is the worst in the NFL this season.
Bold prediction: The Bengals will put up 34-plus points. Offense has not been Cincinnati’s issue — the team ranks seventh in EPA per play on that side of the ball — and it is going against a weak Carolina defense. I think lots of points will be scored, but the Bengals will pull away and win easily. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard. Dalton revitalized the offense against the Raiders, and his presence definitely helped Hubbard, who racked up 27.9 fantasy points with 26 touches. Hubbard also proved he can be a threat as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bengals struggled defensively against the Commanders on Monday night, giving up 356 yards and 38 points. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are the third team since the 1970 merger to lose as at least 7.5-point favorites twice in the first three weeks (2012 Saints, 1978 Patriots). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Panthers 28, Bengals 24
Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Panthers 24
Walder’s pick: Bengals 37, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: CIN, 64.9% (by an average of 6.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Burrow looks to lead 0-3 Bengals more with his voice … Benched before, Dalton relates to Young … Strong ‘vet presence’ pays off for Dalton with big day in Panthers’ win
Jaguars (0-3) at Texans (2-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: HOU -6 (45.5 O/U)
Jaguars storyline to watch: The Jaguars are the only team that has yet to force a turnover. This is the longest the team has gone to begin a season without forcing at least one. “It’s a point of emphasis every single week, every single day,” defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen said. “… We’re just staying positive with it. We’d love to have about eight or nine a game. But let’s get one and go from there.” — Mike DiRocco
Texans storyline to watch: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has lost eight straight starts, but his last win was against the Texans in Week 12 of 2023 when he threw for 364 yards. In Lawrence’s career, he’s 2-1 on the road against the Texans, averaging 282 yards per game, but he has a 4-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Even though the Jaguars are winless to start 2024, Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said Jacksonville’s offense “can be explosive” because of Lawrence’s ability of “finding a way to get that ball out quickly.” — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: Lawrence is the second QB picked No. 1 overall in the common draft era (since 1967) to have multiple eight-game losing streaks in his career, joining Jim Plunkett.
Bold prediction: Texans cornerback Kamari Lassiter will allow under 25 passing yards. The second-round rookie is off to a hot start to his career, having allowed 0.7 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He now faces a struggling Jaguars offense. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Texans got a wake-up call in Week 3 against the Vikings, but they’ll be eager to bounce back against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With RB Joe Mixon banged up, Houston should lean heavily on Stroud and WRs Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Last season, Stroud averaged 292 passing yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions against the Jaguars. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans are 6-1 outright and 5-2 ATS after a loss under Ryans. They are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games following a loss. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 28, Jaguars 20
Moody’s pick: Texans 28, Jaguars 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 24, Jaguars 17
FPI prediction: HOU, 61.0% (by an average of 4.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why hasn’t Lawrence lived up to the hype? … Texans know they must protect Stroud to be successful … Pederson noncommittal on Lawrence after loss
Commanders (2-1) at Cardinals (1-2)
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ARI -3.5 (50.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington’s 2-1 start can be attributed to its offense and the explosiveness added with Jayden Daniels. The Commanders have scored points on 14 consecutive possessions, excluding two kneel-down situations. But for the team to keep winning, its pass defense must improve. Washington has allowed an NFL-worst nine passing touchdowns to wide receivers and ranks 31st in passing yards allowed. The Commanders also rank 30th in sacks per dropback (3.8%); the lack of consistent pressure and coverage issues have combined for a sluggish defensive start. — John Keim
Cardinals storyline to watch: He won’t admit it, but this is a game QB Kyler Murray wants to win — badly. Across the field from Murray will be former Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury, who coached Murray for the first four years of his NFL career. The two had a tenuous relationship in the final year of Kingsbury’s tenure, so winning and showcasing what he can do well — staying in the pocket and throwing the ball all over the field — will be Murray’s way of showing Kingsbury what he’s missing. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: The Commanders are the third team in the Super Bowl era to have back-to-back games without a punt along with the 2021 Bills and 2004 Steelers (none has done so in three straight).
Bold prediction: Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson will record 80-plus receiving yards. Corner Benjamin St-Juste has allowed over 200 yards and three touchdowns as the nearest defender this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And Wilson most often lines up on the offense’s left, so he’ll most likely face St-Juste, who most often lines up opposite that side. — Walder
Injuries: Commanders | Cardinals
Fantasy X factor: Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. He has been on fire, recording eight or more targets and 17 or more fantasy points in consecutive games. The Cardinals-Commanders matchup also has one of the highest point totals for Week 4. With Murray under center, Harrison should see plenty of targets. Also, no team gives up more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Commanders. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 2-6 ATS in their past seven games as underdogs. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 33, Commanders 28
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 31, Commanders 25
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 27, Commanders 23
FPI prediction: ARI, 61.4% (by an average of 4.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Quinn wants Daniels free from ‘ghosts’ after near-perfect performance
Patriots (1-2) at 49ers (1-2)
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SF -10 (40.5 O/U)
Patriots storyline to watch: Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled in each of the first three games, and coach Jerod Mayo acknowledged: “We’re all going to be targets until we can show that we can protect the ball.” The 49ers recovered a fumble in each of the first two games of the season before their Week 3 loss to the Rams in which they didn’t force a turnover. — Mike Reiss
49ers storyline to watch: Both teams are looking to avoid having a losing record through the first four weeks, though it would be nothing new for the Patriots and jarring for the 49ers. New England has had a losing record through four games in each of the previous three seasons after that happened just twice in the previous 24 seasons. The Niners, meanwhile, have not been under .500 through the first four since 2018. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The Patriots have allowed 10 sacks in their past two games (both losses) after allowing one sack in season-opening win against the Bengals.
Bold prediction: 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk finally has that big game with 80-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. The targets ramped up last week — to 10 — and I think the production will follow now. It has to happen soon … right? — Walder
Fantasy X factor: 49ers running back Jordan Mason. QB Brock Purdy is dealing with some back soreness, but he’s unlikely to miss Sunday’s game. San Francisco would be smart to lean on Mason and its offensive line. New England allowed 28.0 fantasy points to Breece Hall and Braelon Allen in Week 3. Mason, who had a season-high 29 touches and 22.2 fantasy points in Week 1, could replicate that performance Sunday. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: This is the first double-digit spread of the season. This is the first season in the Super Bowl era that no team was favored by double digits in the first three weeks. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: 49ers 28, Patriots 12
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Patriots 13
Walder’s pick: 49ers 34, Patriots 9
FPI prediction: SF, 77.2% (by an average of 11.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Was Jets game a sign of things to come for the Patriots? … Is there a new Patriot Way? How Mayo approaches coaching … How Bosa and the 49ers’ defense will adjust without Hargrave
0:33
Why Tyler Fulghum has confidence in 49ers’ defense
Tyler Fulghum explains why he expects the 49ers’ defense to step up vs. the Patriots at home.
Browns (1-2) at Raiders (1-2)
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LV -2 (36.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: The Browns’ offensive line reached crisis mode in Week 3, losing three starters — right guard Wyatt Teller (knee), left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (knee) and right tackle James Hudson III (shoulder). Teller was placed on injured reserve, and there’s still uncertainty regarding which of the team’s offensive tackles will be available. The offensive line, which has allowed a league-high 16 sacks, will have its hands full against the Raiders, who rank third in pass rush win rate (55.2%). — Daniel Oyefusi
Raiders storyline to watch: While the Raiders’ oft-opportunistic defense is tenuously held together by edge rusher Maxx Crosby‘s injured left ankle, the offense is a work in progress. It has the league’s fourth-ranked passing attack (734 yards) but the worst ground game (153 yards) in the NFL, averaging a paltry 2.8 yards per carry. That should call for a more balanced attack against Cleveland, right? “Balance, schmalance. Balance is, in my opinion,” WR Davante Adams said before a lengthy pause. “It’s important to be an efficient football team, no matter what vehicle you use to control your offense.” — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has posted the worst Total QBR among 29 quarterbacks to start all three games (23).
Bold prediction: Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker will catch a 35-yard-plus pass. No team runs less two-high coverage than the Browns, and that should give Tucker, who runs a high rate of deep fades and go routes, some one-on-one opportunities. The Raiders need to connect on just one to potentially change the game. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Raiders wide receiver Adams. He has averaged 9.0 targets and 22.8 fantasy points per game this season and should stay busy against Cleveland’s secondary. Rookie Malik Nabers just dropped 28.2 fantasy points on the Browns in Week 2, and their defense ranks near the bottom of the league in two-high coverage. That could set Adams up for some chunk plays. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 8-1 in Browns road games since the start of last season (9-1 in past 10). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Raiders 17, Browns 16
Moody’s pick: Browns 19, Raiders 17
Walder’s pick: Browns 14, Raiders 13
FPI prediction: CLE, 51.0% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why Browns’ revamped offense has been one of the NFL’s worst … Raiders trying to manage Crosby’s ankle sprain … Watson on wanting more designed QB runs: I’m not a running back
Chiefs (3-0) at Chargers (2-1)
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: KC -7 (39.5 O/U)
Chiefs storyline to watch: Expect this game to come down to the end. Of the past five Chiefs-Chargers matchups, only once was the final margin more than six points. Lately, the Chiefs have been playing close games against opponents. Kansas City’s past six games, dating back to last season’s playoffs, have been decided by one score, and three weren’t settled until the final play. — Adam Teicher
Chargers storyline to watch: The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers recently, going 8-2 in their past 10 matchups. The Chargers’ last win came in January of 2021, when QB Justin Herbert threw for 302 yards and three touchdowns. But Herbert (ankle), right tackle Joe Alt (MCL sprain), outside linebacker Joey Bosa (hip) and Rashawn Slater (pectoral) are nursing injuries and could be out Sunday, so it will be an uphill battle for this team to upset the Chiefs. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice leads the NFL with 24 receptions, which is the most through three games in Chiefs history. He ranks second in receiving yards (288) behind Nico Collins (338).
Bold prediction: Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman will rack up 12-plus combined tackles. Perryman ranks second among linebackers in run stop win rate (50%), and I’m not optimistic about the Chargers’ chances given Herbert’s questionable ankle health. If the Chiefs get out to a big lead, there should be plenty of tackle opportunities to go around. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are up against a Chargers defense that ranks fourth in run stop win rate (35.2%), so expect Kansas City to lean more on the passing game this Sunday. Surprisingly, Mahomes has averaged only 14.8 fantasy points per game this season. However, he has averaged 27.0 fantasy points in his past five matchups against the Chargers. That’s the kind of Mahomes performance I expect to see this week. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chargers have covered seven straight games when getting at least 6 points (Herbert: 6-0 ATS). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 21
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 17
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 26, Chargers 13
FPI prediction: KC, 63.1% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mahomes, Reid defend Kelce’s slow start … Heinicke’s first Chargers start would be another unlikely moment for undrafted QB … Hunt to play six years after being cut
Bills (3-0) at Ravens (1-2)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BAL -2.5 (46.5 O/U)
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills will be without middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) and nickel corner Taron Johnson (forearm) for a second straight game, facing a tough test against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who is coming off 151 rushing yards and two touchdowns versus the Cowboys. The Bills’ offense has assisted the defense in the past two games by getting out to leads early, which would help Buffalo against this rushing attack. There is also a history of success for this defense against Jackson, who has been limited to 144.5 passing yards per game in two starts against Buffalo. — Alaina Getzenberg
Ravens storyline to watch: The Ravens and the NFL’s worst pass defense look to slow down Josh Allen, whose 92.6 QBR is the highest through three games by any player since the ESPN began tracking it in 2006. Baltimore has surprisingly struggled against the pass, allowing 875 yards through the air — including a league-worst 363 yards passing in the fourth quarter. It’s been a rough start for first-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr. If the Ravens allow 25 or more points for the fourth straight game, it will tie the longest streak in franchise history. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Allen is tied with Steve Young for the most games (four) with multiple rushing and passing touchdowns. Jackson holds the record for the most games with 100 rushing yards and two passing touchdowns (five) in NFL history.
Bold prediction: Bills cornerback Christian Benford will allow under 30 passing yards. Benford is off to a great start to the year, allowing just 0.4 yards per coverage snap — the second least by an outside corner with at least 50 coverage snaps — along with a pick. He’ll present an issue for Zay Flowers and the Ravens receivers. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. He has been a surprise this season. Instead of rookie Keon Coleman or veteran Curtis Samuel, Shakir has emerged as the Bills’ top receiver. He leads Buffalo in targets (14), catches (14), yards (168) and touchdowns (2). Up next, he faces a Ravens secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers in what should be a high-scoring game. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Ravens overs are 3-0 this season. Unders are 13-4 in Bills road games since 2022. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 30, Ravens 28
Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Bills 28
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Ravens 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 56.7% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Settlers of Catan has brought the Bills closer … How Henry found his place in Ravens offense vs. Cowboys … Bills’ defense is deep, despite injuries
Titans (0-3) at Dolphins (1-2)
Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: MIA -1 (36.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to watch: The Titans’ offensive line has been an issue, specifically at right tackle. Nicholas Petit-Frere, last week’s starter, was benched after a missed block led to a strip-sack of QB Will Levis. Jaelyn Duncan came off the bench and gave up two sacks. Coach Brian Callahan said both players could possibly rotate during the game. Whoever plays there will need help from the tight ends and running backs against Dolphins pass rushers Jaelan Phillips and Emmanuel Ogbah. — Turron Davenport
Dolphins storyline to watch: A Week 14 loss to the Titans last year ended up being the difference in Miami’s bid for an AFC East title, but the Dolphins don’t have time to think about revenge. There’s a real possibility QB Tyler Huntley or Tim Boyle makes his first start of the season if Skylar Thompson (ribs) isn’t cleared. Coach Mike McDaniel said he’s open to changes either way, considering the Dolphins scored three points last week. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill‘s 40 receiving yards in Week 3 marked the third time in his career that he has been held under 50 receiving yards in back-to-back games.
Bold prediction: The Dolphins will have a designed run rate of 70% or higher. Whether it’s Thompson, Boyle or Huntley, Miami is probably going to need to change its offense significantly. It would make sense to lean on De’Von Achane with a run-heavy game plan. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Titans running back Tony Pollard. The Dolphins’ defense gives up the third-most fantasy points to running backs. This is a weakness the Titans should exploit, especially with Levis struggling. Pollard has 18 or more touches and 15 or more fantasy points in two of three games this season. He also has averaged 15.2 fantasy points in games where he has had 15 or more touches. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Both teams are 0-3 ATS this season. Unders are 3-0 in Dolphins games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Titans 20, Dolphins 13
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 21, Titans 13
Walder’s pick: Titans 19, Dolphins 16
FPI prediction: TEN, 56.4% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Callahan backs struggling Levis as Titans’ QB … When will Tua return and what’s next for the Dolphins at QB? … CB Awuzie ‘definitely’ a possibility for IR
0:59
Schefter lays out QB options for Dolphins to ‘save their season’
Adam Schefter joins “The Pat McAfee Show” and provides some potential quarterback options the Dolphins can explore in Tua Tagovailoa’s absence.
Seahawks (3-0) at Lions (2-1)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: DET -3.5 (45.5 O/U)
Seahawks storyline to watch: The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-fewest points (14.3) and the second-fewest yards (746) through three weeks. The obvious caveat is that they’ve faced a favorable schedule, beating the Broncos in Bo Nix’s NFL debut, Jacoby Brissett and a limited group of Patriots pass-catchers as well as the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa. They’ll get their first real test against Jared Goff and all the Lions’ offensive threats in Detroit. — Brady Henderson
Lions storyline to watch: It’s no secret that the Seahawks have had the upper hand as of late, winning five straight games against Detroit and eight of their past nine. Dan Campbell has been on the losing end of the past three contests versus Seattle, and he’s looking to snap the losing streak on the MNF stage with a 5-2 prime-time record as a head coach. “I would be lying though if I told you that I don’t know we’ve lost to them three years in a row,” he said. “I do know that. So, you get tired of that after one loss, much less three.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Lions running back David Montgomery has now scored a rushing touchdown in six straight games (ties longest streak of his career); that is tied for the second-longest streak in Lions history.
Bold prediction: Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen will pick off Goff. Woolen is off to a hot start in 2024, with the lowest yards per coverage snap (0.3) among outside corners with at least 75 coverage snaps. Granted, that’s surely influenced by the offenses Seattle has faced (Denver, New England and Tagovailoa-less Miami), but we also know Woolen has a knack for grabbing interceptions (nine in his career). — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He had a quiet Week 3 against the Dolphins after going off in Week 2 with 16 targets and 23.7 fantasy points versus the Patriots. Smith-Njigba has run over 70% of his routes from the slot, positioning him well against a Lions defense that has struggled to contain slot receivers. This matchup also has one of the highest point totals on the slate. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 37-17 ATS under Campbell, the best record of any team since 2021. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Lions 27, Seahawks 21
Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Seahawks 21
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Seahawks 22
FPI prediction: DET, 61.9% (by an average of 4.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Macdonald is guiding the Seahawks post-Carroll … Lions’ Dan Campbell doxxed by daughter’s classmate
