Liberty bellwethers: Five Pennsylvania counties to watch on election night

Pennsylvania is once again likely the closest-watched state on election night, as the commonwealth’s 19 electoral votes are poised to swing the election one way or another.

Five counties — Bucks, Northampton, Erie, Centre and Luzerne — out of 67 are likely the ones that will tell the tale of whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election.

BUCKS COUNTY – COUNTY SEAT: DOYLESTOWN

Bucks County made national headlines last week after the RNC and the Trump campaign took legal action against county officials after lines for “on-demand” voting were truncated prior to the stated closing time.

A judge ultimately allowed Bucks voters involved in the process until Friday to cast their early ballots. Bucks is also known as one major county where voters typically split their votes.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and his late brother, Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, both Republicans, enjoyed consistent-but-close wins in the county, while national and gubernatorial results are often a mixed bag. Brian was re-elected in 2020 just as Biden won the county.

The county also flipped to a GOP voter registration advantage this cycle, with the Philadelphia Inquirer reporting the Republicans enjoy just under a 1,000-registrant majority.

While Trump lost all of Philadelphia’s once-Republican collar counties — Delaware, Chester, Montgomery and Bucks — in 2016, only the latter appears in play this cycle.

NORTHAMPTON COUNTY – COUNTY SEAT: EASTON

Bordering Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton counties geopolitically unite to form the key, postindustrial Lehigh Valley region. The congressional seat currently held by Rep. Susan Wild, a Democrat, is always a tight contest.

While Lehigh typically remains in Democrat hands due to Pennsylvania’s third-largest city — Allentown — as its anchor, neighboring Northampton County surprised everyone when Trump took it in 2016.

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Northampton’s Republican Party leader, Andrew Azan III, said in a recent interview he is very optimistic again this year, and said there was recently a “waitlist” for Trump yard signs.

ERIE COUNTY – COUNTY SEAT: ERIE

Far to the west, Erie sticks up into the great lakes like a thumb, and its electorate could put their collective thumb on the scale for either candidate.

Erie GOP chair Tom Eddy recently said that Erie is “unique… in the fact it’s able to pick the winners.” Trump won Erie County and the election in 2016, and Biden won in 2020.

Eddy called the county “Little Pennsylvania” — as it has a bit of every piece of the state within its bounds: an urban area, agricultural lands and industry.

LUZERNE COUNTY – COUNTY SEAT: WILKES-BARRE

Meanwhile, in Luzerne County, anchored by Wilkes-Barre and Hazleton, Republicans recently shocked observers in September by becoming a majority there.

The union-heavy county neighboring Biden’s Lackawanna went for Trump in 2016 and 2020 despite its then-Democratic bent.

“We’d all like to thank the Democrats and the Democratic platform because they’re the ones that really inspired people to leave the party and become Republicans,” Luzerne County GOP 119th District Chairman T.J. Fitzgerald said.

Early Vote Action leader Scott Presler, who has crisscrossed Pennsylvania to register Republican voters, previously said it was a major feat ahead of an expectedly-close election.

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When Fox News Digital covered a weekend of Presler’s work in red counties like Lancaster and Dauphin, he also identified Bucks, Luzerne and Centre as those most ripe for Republicans’ picking.

CENTRE COUNTY – COUNTY SEAT: BELLEFONTE

Centre County is the rare blue dot in the middle of northwestern Pennsylvania’s forested expanse. Much of the county reflects the Republicanism of neighboring Clinton, Huntingdon and Blair — but the presence of Penn State University in State College skews it Democratic.

Of the approximately 110,000 voters there, 41.2% are Democrats and 40.3% are Republicans. Prior to the Nittany Lions’ blowout of Kent State in September, however, Presler and volunteers registered tailgaters to vote and encountered students who were fervently pro-Trump.

State Sen. Cris Dush, a Republican who represents Centre and six other neighboring counties, said the prospect of flipping the blue enclave is “actually getting very exciting.”

Dush said one of them — rural Clinton County — was solidly Democratic until the Trump era and recently went “over 3-1 Republican.”

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Centre may have a shot at the red column this year in part because Gen Z is suddenly battling a rough economy for young hires.

While Pennsylvania industry faces hurdles in regulation and more, Dush commented, the most regrettable outsourcing has been among those young voters.

“The fact that they’re putting such restrictions on the development of businesses in the northern tier and western Pennsylvania: There’s not a state in the United States that doesn’t have a Steelers bar in it, and that’s because working-class kids have become our best export. I want them back,” he said.