Texas A&M hosts LSU on Saturday night in a matchup between top-15 teams with identical 6-1 records and unblemished SEC marks.
While the Aggies are touted for their defense, they’ve yet to face a team with the Tigers’ offensive prowess.
Brian Kelly has always been flexible at his different stops when setting his teams up according to their strengths, and now that he’s at LSU, attracting top-level talent year after year is no longer a problem.
Despite losing Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and two first-round receivers, Kelly and the Tigers’ offense can simply reload thanks to quality depth that will be on display Saturday night in College Station.
LSU vs. Texas A&M odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | +1 (-110) | -105 | o54.5 (-112) |
| Texas A&M | -1 (-110) | -115 | u54.5 (-108) |
LSU outlook
Garrett Nussmeier has completed 55% (69-of-125) of his passes in three SEC games, but Kelly defended his quarterback this week, saying that his offense incentivizes Nussmeier to make more of his reads further down the field.
“You’re not getting some of the cupcake throws that keep the chains moving in some other offenses,” Kelly said. “But we feel like that is a better fit for Garrett in terms of what he does. And it’s worked pretty good for our offense.”
Nussmeier’s aggressiveness has undoubtedly paid off, as he ranks seventh nationally in yards per game (317.4) and leads the SEC with 18 passing touchdowns.
According to Game on Paper, his dropbacks account for 0.27 Expected Points Added (EPA) — the 10th-best mark in the country.
The reality is that Kelly’s reliance on the passing game is almost necessary given the Tigers’ struggles to move the ball on the ground. LSU’s run success rate is only 38.3%, ranking 99th in the FBS.
Texas A&M outlook
There aren’t any secrets about how the Aggies will try to attack LSU. Unlike the Tigers, Texas A&M is a more run-dominant team, ranking 34th in yards per carry (5.77) and 39th in EPA/rush (+0.09).
It’s no surprise then that the Aggies have a run-play rate of 62.06% — the 11th-highest mark in the country.
The problem for LSU is that it’s extremely weak against the run, with opponents averaging 5.29 yards per carry (93rd).
Against South Carolina, the Tigers allowed 243 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry in a narrow 36-33 victory. South Carolina and Texas A&M have very similar profiles, with run rates both ranked in the top 20.
You can be sure Aggies coach Mike Elko will watch that game tape extensively to pinpoint the Tigers’ vulnerabilities in this key SEC showdown.
LSU vs. Texas A&M pick
As much as the Aggies want to keep the ball on the ground, this high-powered LSU offense might force them to abandon the run earlier than they’d like.
While Texas A&M has had success in the passing game, it’s extremely young at quarterback with sophomore Conner Weigman and freshman Marcel Reed.
Weigman reclaimed the starting job after returning from a shoulder injury despite Reed going 3-0 while tossing six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
In contrast, Weigman has thrown three touchdowns along with four picks. However, his TD-INT ratio is somewhat misleading because it misconstrues Texas A&M’s scoring ability with the running game. The Aggies have already picked up 16 touchdowns on the ground.
There should be opportunities for the Aggies to move the ball through the air against LSU’s defense, which ranks 98th with an EPA/dropback of +0.05.
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The Tigers also struggle to take the ball away, as they have only four interceptions on the season.
Considering this is a matchup where both teams can play to their strengths, we should see plenty of points on the scoreboard when it’s all said and done.
Best bet: Over 54.5 points (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
