The Minnesota Lynx head to Indiana to face Caitlin Clark and the red-hot Indiana Fever on Friday night.
No team in the WNBA is hotter than the Fever, who have won five straight and seven of their past eight games since returning from the extended All-Star break.
The only loss in that stretch was to the Western Conference-leading Lynx, who won 90-80 on Aug. 24 in Minneapolis.
Can the Fever extend their winning streak to six games? If so, it will take another Herculean effort from Clark, who is coming off her second triple-double of the season.
Here is my Lynx vs. Fever matchup breakdown, along with a game pick and a Caitlin Clark player prop bet that might surprise you, considering her torrid six-week stretch of basketball.
Lynx vs. Fever odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx | -2.5 (-110) | -142 | o169.5 (-110) |
| Fever | +2.5 (-110) | +120 | u169.5 (-110) |
Lynx vs. Fever prediction and pick
(7:30 p.m. ET, Fubo, ION)
In their past nine games, the Fever are averaging more than 91 points on roughly 47% shooting from the floor and 40% from behind the arc, ranking third in field goal percentage and first in 3-point percentage.
They also have by far the highest offensive rating in the league, average the most points per game, and rank second in effective field goal percentage since the monthlong break in the W.
Unfortunately for Indiana, the Lynx are just as hot. Minnesota has won eight of its past nine, with an outlier road loss to the Dallas Wings last Friday being the only blip in that span.
The Lynx have boasted one of the league’s best defenses this season, ranking third in defensive rating (0.1 away from first), first in opponent fastbreak points per game, second in opponent points off turnovers, and first in opponent field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
Minnesota has also been exceptional offensively in post-All-Star play, ranking second in offensive rating and first in effective field goal percentage.
So, which team should we back on Friday night? The short answer: Take the Fever with the points.
Indiana is the only team that has been undefeated at home since mid-July. It boasts a 5-0 record and ranks first in net rating (+10.6) and effective field goal percentage by a wide margin.
Further, they have undoubtedly the best home crowd in the W, due primarily to the “Clark Effect.”
Minnesota has been fantastic this season, but I love this scalding-hot Indiana team getting points at home.
Pick: Fever +2.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Caitlin Clark player prop
Clark’s past six weeks of basketball have been an incredible stretch for a rookie. She has posted 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game on a ludicrous 48/37/91 shooting split.
Further, the average distance of her 3-point attempts this season is farther from the basket than any other player in professional basketball history, including Stephen Curry and the rest of the NBA, meaning she’s posting elite shooting percentages at an unprecedented range.
At this point, we are running out of adjectives to describe her ability on the floor.
However, Minnesota’s pesky backcourt is always a tall task for any player, including Clark. As mentioned above, the Lynx have one of the league’s best perimeter defenses, ranking first in opponent 3-point percentage.
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Unsurprisingly, Clark has struggled to get clean looks and convert from deep against a Lynx squad that constantly sends different defenders to her and goes over every ball screen.
This is a super-juiced line at -170, but in two games against the Lynx, she has shot just 26.3% (5-of-19) from deep and failed to surpass her Friday night prop in each contest. Minnesota’s defense is the reason for that.
Pick: Caitlin Clark under 3.5 made 3s (-170, bet365)
