Who is going to pitch?
The Braves have repeatedly said that likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale will start only an elimination game. As such, Atlanta plans to roll out Spencer Schwellenbach in the opener and use Sale in Game 2 only if they lose Game 1. Sure, the Braves would love to knock out their division rivals — and vice versa — but spite is less motivating or important than, you know, getting to throw Chris Sale in Game 1 of a playoff series.
The Mets are likely to utilize a similar strategy, with backend starter Tylor Megill likely to start Game 1 and frontline hurler Luis Severino waiting in the wings for Game 2 if necessary. That makes a Sale-Severino showdown extraordinarily unlikely.
Unfortunately, all of these factors create an enormous disadvantage for the Diamondbacks, who will spend Monday sitting in front of the TV, waiting and hoping.
For the rest of us, it means a bonus day of high-stakes baseball, one featuring some of the most bizarre possible outcomes in recent memory.
What scenarios are at play?
There are three possible outcomes: The Mets could sweep, the Braves could sweep, or the two clubs could split the doubleheader.
If a team wins both games Monday, said club is in the playoff field alongside Arizona, with the loser of the doubleheader headed home for the winter. A split between New York and Atlanta would propel both teams into the playoffs and send the Diamondbacks packing, even though all three teams would have identical records. That’s because both the Mets and the Braves hold a tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks.
If the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader, Atlanta would be the No. 5 seed and New York the No. 6 seed, based on Atlanta’s winning the season series between the two. The Braves would then head to San Diego to face the Padres, while the Mets would return to Milwaukee to play the Brewers.
If a team goes 2-0 on Monday, that club, be it New York or Atlanta, would head to San Diego as the No. 5 seed, while Arizona would play Milwaukee as the No. 6 seed in a rematch of last year’s wild-card round.
Hello from Atlanta, where it’s not quite the postseason, but not quite regular season either. Braves and Mets playing two for playoff spots. Could have the very rare double-locker-room celebration today. pic.twitter.com/Sdpdm0vB77
— Jay Busbee (@jaybusbee) September 30, 2024
How did we get here?
Mother Nature is the simple answer. Rain in Georgia last week left Truist Park unplayable. The league could’ve forced the Braves and Mets to play at a neutral site but opted not to do so. Surely the league was hoping the results over the final weekend of games would make playing the doubleheader Monday unnecessary. Had the Diamondbacks not stormed back for 11 runs on Sunday after going down early against the Padres, MLB would’ve gotten its wish. Arizona would’ve been eliminated with a loss, propelling New York and Atlanta into the October tournament.
A Braves win Sunday would have activated perhaps the most unsavory scenario, in which Atlanta would’ve clinched a wild-card spot but still would’ve had to play New York twice on Monday because the Mets would’ve needed to win both to clinch and eliminate the D-backs.
Thankfully, that’s not how it went down. We’re left with ample mayhem nonetheless.
