Nebraska and Troy open their NCAA Tournament runs in a 4-13 matchup that points more toward a grinder than a shootout.
With the total sitting in the high 130s as of this writing, the market is already expecting a slower, more controlled game, and it is not hard to see why.
The Cornhuskers have been one of the top defenses in the country this season, which will make it tough for Troy to score efficiently for 40 minutes.
Nebraska finished seventh nationally in defensive efficiency at KenPom and allowed the 16th fewest points per game (66.2) this season.
Troy was solid offensively this season, but they’ve yet to face a defense as tough as the Cornhuskers’ with their soft Sun Belt Conference schedule.
The pace of this game isn’t exactly going to be blazing either.
Nebraska ranked 218th among all Division 1 teams in adjusted tempo at KenPom with 66.8 possessions per 40 minutes.
Troy was faster at 71.7 possessions per game, but the heavily-favored Cornhuskers should be the ones dictating how this game is played.
That is usually a good recipe for an Under in March.
If Nebraska gets out in front, as oddsmakers are expecting with a 13.5-point spread, the Cornhuskers are unlikely to speed this game up, and Troy may have a hard time generating enough offense to push the total higher.
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Despite this contest boasting one of the lowest totals of the Round of 64 slate, I like the under in a game where baskets should be hard to come by.
The play: Under 138 total points (-115, Caesars Sportsbook)
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
