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JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in the lead following a pivotal election Tuesday — making a third act for the Iran war almost certain.
The prime minister’s coalition was in the lead Wednesday with 53 seats after Gadi Eisenkot’s Change bloc failed to deliver a knockout blow following the highest election turnout in decades.
Eisenkot had 49 seats with more than 90% of the vote counted. Both sides were notably well short of the 61 seats needed for a majority.
However, Netanyahu’s apparent comeback — after exit polls Tuesday showed him behind the opposition — will give him room to launch a new campaign against Iran with American forces following the US midterm elections, observers say.
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“The Iranian regime did not expect that Netanyahu would be the biggest party. They are afraid of him because he talks against Iran about attacking Iran again,” Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Israel, told the Post.
Netanyahu has long pushed to topple mullahs in the Islamic Republic. Eisenkot agrees that Iran must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, but has said regime change is unrealistic.
“Eisenkot has stated that he would not seek to bring about the fall of the regime in Iran,” said Yossi Mansharof, an expert on Iran for The Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.
“Netanyahu emphasizes that this is his strategic directive to Israel’s entire security establishment. The question of who leads the government is of great importance.”
With neither side in Israeli politics set to secure a majority — and Israel’s Arab parties claiming a huge 17-seat bloc — it remains likely that no prime minister will be selected for weeks. There is even the possibility that yet another election will have to be called.
But in the meantime, renewed war with Iran seems likely.
The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the Trump administration informed Sunni Gulf countries that the US military will resume its war against Iran after the American midterm elections.
The US military also sent a Patriot system to Israel from Texas to enhance the missile defense apparatus of the Jewish state.
Just days before the Israeli election on Tuesday, the Israeli news outlet Ynet reported quoted a senior defense official as saying that the Israeli public needs to be prepared for renewed fighting.
“The war against Iran will be prolonged. As long as this regime does not fall, we are likely to face recurring rounds of fighting, perhaps every year and possibly even more frequently, in order to ensure that the nuclear and ballistic missile threat does not endanger the existence of the State of Israel,” the official said.
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Act One of the joint US-Israel campaign to destroy Iran’s illicit nuclear weapons facilities started in June 2025 and lasted twelve days. In late February of this year, Act Two unfolded when the US and Israel launched massive aerial warfare strikes that knocked out Iran’s navy and many of its missile bases.
Many Israeli experts on Iran and voters have more confidence in Netanyahu’s ability to confront Iran’s clerical regime because of his laser-like focus on the rogue regime over the decades.
Sabti, who was born in Tehran, said that Iran’s regime is nervous and does not want a revival of war.
“Netanyahu has the biggest potential along with Trump to attack them,” he said.
One Jerusalemite, Hallel Rosenberg, 40, concurred.
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“Personally, I would probably trust Netanyahu more to run the war with Iran,” he said.
With war on the horizon, Trump’s Operation Economic Fury has put the Iranian economy in a vice.
“Iranian regime is facing a serious predicament, as the economic blockade continues to take its toll. The growing difficulty the regime’s leadership faces in dealing with the economic consequences is becoming increasingly evident on a daily basis,” Mansharof said.
“More broadly, the current state of ‘neither peace nor war’ is a nightmare for elements within Iran’s governing system.”
Observers believe that if Eisenkot takes power — which would likely require an alliance with Arab parties — he could push to make a deal that would enrich Iran in exchange of nuclear concessions.
“Netanyahu would not agree to such an arrangement, understanding that a nuclear deal would prolong the regime’s lifespan,” Mansharof said.
