The oft-advertised “JOY!” — which defined the early days of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign — appears to have left the building in the wake of some of the latest swing state polls.
One Emerson College poll in particular showed former President Donald Trump leading the Democratic Party’s candidate-by-default in four of seven key “swing” states: Arizona (49-47), Pennsylvania (49-48), Georgia (49-48), and North Carolina (49-48). In two other states — Michigan and Wisconsin — the candidates were tied at 49. Nevada showed just a one-point advantage for Harris, 48 to Trump’s 47.
🇺🇲 Swing States Polling by Emerson
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 47%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 49% (=)
🟥 Trump: 49%
—…— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 10, 2024
All seven states’ results were well within the margin of error, meaning that the race was still likely to be a nail-biter right up to the very last minute — but other indicators are starting to suggest a shift away from Harris.
An Axios report published on Thursday laid out the cracks Harris still has to repair — with less than one month to go — in what was once the solidly Democrat “blue wall” if she wants to eke out a victory on November 5.
Am I Racist? Is In Theaters NOW — Get Your Tickets Here!
“Harris is depending on that Blue Wall to win the White House, even if she struggles in the Sunbelt,” Axios’ Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei wrote. “On private calls, some top Harris allies are saying they believe the race will come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan.”
Both candidates have made their presence felt in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, with Trump returning last Saturday to the exact spot where a gunman attempted to take his life just three months prior. GOP activist Scott Presler — who has been on the ground in Pennsylvania registering voters for weeks — and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk joined the former president at a rally that was said to reach a six-figure attendance.
Meanwhile, Harris has planned rallies and her surrogates have been knocking on doors, but as her planned media blitz has thus far only delivered an abundance of unforced errors — and the contributions from running mate Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) have not translated to a much-needed bump in polls — critics continue to second guess her decision to pass over Pennsylvania’s popular Governor Josh Shapiro for the VP slot.
