Player props continue to be the most beatable market in sports betting.
We’re rolling right now. If you bet on every single player prop bet that I’ve posted this season, you’re winning a pretty (discontinued) penny.
Our record is just 15-28, but our profit is right in line with our previous season averages. We’ve profited 9.57 units this season, which is good enough for a 22.26 percent return on investment.
These are all mostly long shots, so not exactly worried about the record being less than .500, given the long odds on some of these props.
Below we find some fun spots to keep the fun times moving along in Week 12 with these best bets and player props.
Week 12 NFL player props, picks, predictions
Tee Higgins to score a touchdown (+125, bet365) | 2+ touchdowns (+900, DraftKings)
No Ja’marr Chase this weekend means Tee Higgins could have himself a delicious feast on Sunday afternoon. The Patriots’ secondary is a disaster, ranked No. 27 against the pass.
Joe Burrow may be, he may not. With Joe Flacco, Higgins has five touchdowns in five games. I see no reason to be down on Higgins if it’s Flacco at quarterback, and the lack of Chase means Higgins has the opportunity to showcase himself as the wide receiver one that I think he is.
Expect an absolute shootout on Sunday as Higgins gets peppered with targets all Sunday afternoon.
Raiders defensive stats: Maxx Crosby to get a sack | 2+ (+188, DraftKings) | Raiders safety (17/1, DraftKings)
I’ll probably post these bets and exact numbers on my X account (@erichterrr) ahead of Sunday’s game.
These lines are not out yet at the time of writing, but I think it could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that I don’t want to ignore to smash Shedeur Sanders, who takes an unfathomable amount of sacks.
In 2023, while quarterbacking for Colorado, Sanders was sacked on 10.2 percent of his dropbacks, far beyond the FBS average of 6.2 percent.
Sanders was sacked three times last week in 30 plays (22 dropbacks). He also scrambled three times for 16 yards. Too much running for Sanders and not enough arm talent.
He’s not gifted enough athletically to survive in the NFL this way.
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Travis Kelce over 4.5 receptions (-110, BetMGM) | 10+ receptions (+1960, DraftKings) | Kelce touchdown (+145, bet365)
This is a playoff game for the Chiefs, and who better to target than Travis Kelce?
Kelce has quietly looked really solid, culminating in last week’s showcase, where he had nine catches for 91 yards and a touchdown.
The Colts are not good at defending tight ends, allowing the second-most yards in the league to the position.
Coming off his best game of the season and the Colts really struggling to defend the position, this is a smash spot as far as I can tell.
Kelce over everything this weekend, and thank me later.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
