With the NFL season getting down to the nitty-gritty, we start our tour of Week 16 in South Philly, home of the Flyers’ sensational mascot “Gritty.”
Saturday
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5) over Washington Commanders
Interesting scheduling, as these NFC East teams meet twice in the final three weeks of the season. The Commanders snapped an eight-game losing streak last week in a game Post colleague Paul Schwartz rightfully labeled a pillow fight.
The Eagles have some injury concerns for top offensive linemen Landon Dickerson and Lane Johnson, so this could turn into a bit of a slog. Still, the Eagles would clinch the NFC East with a win, so I’m figuring that will keep them interested enough to win by at least a touchdown.
CHICAGO BEARS (+1) over Green Bay Packers
The Bears enter with a half-game lead over the Packers atop the NFC North. The challenge for Green Bay’s staff is how to replace Micah Parsons, who tore his ACL last week. Parsons had 12.5 of the Packers’ 33 sacks and was also their leader in tackles for loss and forced fumbles.
The Bears rank seventh in fewest sacks allowed. They’ll give extra attention to Rashan Gary, who has 7.5 sacks. Behind him, no Packer who will be in uniform has more than two. Though the Bears have some aches and pains at wide receiver, the intact and strong offensive line should allow Caleb Williams time to operate.
Sunday
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5.5) over New York Jets
The Saints have won their way out of contention for the first pick in the draft, and that’s fine for first-year coach Kellen Moore and rookie QB Tyler Shough.
The Jets travel south as they head north on the draft list. Brady Cook hasn’t been terrible and AD Mitchell and John Metchie have given the offense some life. Yet, the defense has fallen off a cliff, giving up 82 combined points to the Dolphins and Jaguars.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants are the current owners of the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft. Yes, the players play to win and Mike Kafka is running out of chances to get that zero off the left side of the hyphen in his record. Still, it’s hard to believe they give up their perch in this one.
The Vikings have multiple injuries on the offensive line and the Giants’ pass rush perked up last week, particularly Abdul Carter. The rest of that game, however, saw Commanders free runners cruising through wide-open gaps in the Giants defense. Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison can do the same, possibly more.
Buffalo Bills (-10.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
Though the Browns rank third in yardage allowed, their 23.7 ppg allowed sits 19th and is sinking fast after giving up 26, 31 and 31 points in their past three games, all losses. Cleveland also has injury worries on the offensive line. Willing to lay the big points to watch Josh Allen vs. a harried Shedeur Sanders for three hours.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
The Chargers are 10-4 and have won three in a row, the past two against the Eagles and Chiefs. Omarion Hampton is healthy again at running back. So I’m not quite sure why I’m being offered points against a 6-7-1 Cowboys team that would be eliminated from playoff contention with an Eagles win Saturday. But I’m happy to take them.
TENNESSEE TITANS (+3) over Kansas City Chiefs
James Taylor could have been referring to the 2025 Chiefs when he wrote 55 years ago: “Sweet dreams and flying machines in pieces on the ground.” Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending knee injury was the proverbial final nail in the coffin of a Chiefs season that essentially had been crushed by previous losses to the Cowboys and Texans. The Titans have just two wins and are in the mix for the No. 1 pick, but this is a chance to feast on the carcass of a fallen dynasty.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+4) over Cincinnati Bengals
These are two strange teams, aren’t they? On Monday night, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman trashed the Dolphins for playing with no urgency, even as they were scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns to make the 28-15 final in Pittsburgh a little less alarming. After the game, Mike McDaniel benched Tua Tagovailoa for Quinn Ewers. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow sounds as if he’s addressing a funeral every time he speaks. Taking the points on the basis of one stat — the Bengals give up an NFL-worst 157.9 yards per game rushing. Go get ’em, De’Von Achane.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Bucs are coming off back-to-back divisional home losses to the Saints and Falcons. Still, at 7-7 they are tied with the Panthers atop the NFC South heading into Sunday’s matchup in Charlotte. It’s the first meeting of the season, with another slated for Week 18. Carolina has some injury concerns on the offensive line, and Baker Mayfield has most of his biggest weapons back. Thinking this is the day the Bucs finally put it all together.
DENVER BRONCOS (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars
A couple of teams on long winning streaks — Denver at 11 and Jacksonville at five. At 12-2, the Broncos currently hold the top seed in the AFC, and it would be a huge advantage to play two January games a mile high for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Any other situation makes it exponentially harder, so Sean Payton should have his troops at full alert. Denver’s starting lineup also is injury free, a rarity for this time of season. Looking for the Broncos defense and home crowd to make this a speed bump for Trevor Lawrence.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Falcons as favorites … it’s almost an automatic no-can-do. But when I look at the Cardinals, with injuries on both sides of the ball, I want no part of them against Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and the Falcons pass rushers.
DETROIT LIONS (-7) over Pittsburgh Steelers
The closest analogy to explain what I’m thinking about this matchup is: What would happen if you put an old police cruiser on an F1 track to race against Max Verstappen? No shade to Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, but I’m expecting this will be the first time the Lions really put it all into high gear since their 52-21 rout of the Bears in Week 2.
Las Vegas Raiders (+14.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
The Raiders are mailing it in at 2-12 and may already have paid too much in postage to consider taking them at any number. But I’m willing to take this number at north of two touchdowns. In the past six weeks, they’ve lost to the Jaguars by one and Broncos by three and seven. Just one of the Texans’ past seven wins would have covered this spread.
New England Patriots (+3) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Love the idea of getting points with the Patriots the week after they blew a big lead and lost to the Bills. Mike Vrabel will have them ready, and the coach also knows all he needs to know about stopping his former Tennessee bell cow, Derrick Henry.
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Monday
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+6.5) over San Francisco 49ers
Philip Rivers lived to tell about going up against the menacing Seahawks at 44 years old, coming off the couch with just a few days of practice. The Colts covered and almost won. Rivers should be able to do even more on “Monday Night Football” as he has a lot to work with in Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren and an angry team that’s still in the playoff hunt at 8-6.
BEST BETS: Colts, Vikings, Titans.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Colts (Locks 6-9 in 2025).
LAST WEEK: 10-6 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.
THURSDAY: Rams.
