The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 17 slate.
SUNDAY
Patriots (-13.5) over JETS
The Jets have given up faith, while the Patriots need these last two games to lock up the AFC East and get a top-two seed in the AFC. Brady Cook will start again for Gang Green, but even the nearly two-touchdown spread is not enough for me to back the underdog. My model has the Patriots favored by 15.5.
Giants (-1.5) over RAIDERS
The Giants shouldn’t have been underdogs before this line flipped. I had the Giants +1.5 in my early predictions piece, and I’ll still back them here as 1.5-point favorites. Las Vegas has the NFL’s worst offensive line and is missing Brock Bowers now. It’s a tank off, and even the Giants can’t do it properly. They win.
Cardinals (+7.5 ) over BENGALS
Joe Burrow has played pretty well since his return from a turf toe injury, but laying 7.5 points is a bit too much for my blood. The Bengals have played much better, but they’re still the lowest in the league in net yards per play (-1.29 net yards per play). Cincinnati is still giving up a league-worst 7.1 yards per play (ypp) in their last three games. Don’t let the rose-colored sunglasses of Burrow fool you.
BROWNS (+3) over Steelers
This game might not even matter for the Steelers by the time Sunday rolls around. Baltimore plays the Packers likely without Lamar Jackson on Saturday, and without knowing that game’s results, I’ll target the Browns here in a close matchup. As we’ve discussed, the Browns are a different team at home; they allow 4.3 YPP, second-best in the NFL.
Saints (-2.5 ) over TITANS
Two teams that have really improved by season’s end. Tyler Shough has been a cash cow for me, and I’m not dropping him here. My model has New Orleans as slightly north of a 3.5-point favorite, with a projected score of 20.01 to 16.45 in favor of New Orleans. We’re dumpster diving here, and taking the Saints to continue their strong play in a battle of rookie quarterbacks.
Betting on the NFL?
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
- Check out the best NFL betting sites
- Get the BetMGM Bonus Code
Jaguars (-6.5) over COLTS
Phillip Rivers is going to be in over his head against an opportunistic Jaguars defense that has the second-most interceptions in the NFL. The Jaguars blitz on 25.3 percent of plays on defense, about middle of the pack in the NFL. With the Colts in a tough spot and out of the playoff picture, the Jaguars should make this one look easy.
Buccaneers (-6) over DOLPHINS
Tampa Bay is used to being in Florida in December; this is a spot to target the Buccaneers against a quarterback that I’m not sure belongs in the NFL in Quinn Wers. Neither defense is robust, with Miami allowing 5.6 YPP and Tampa Bay allowing 5.7. But the Buccaneers have the benefit of a healthy offense and competent quarterback play.
Seahawks (-7) over PANTHERS
The No. 2 DVOA squad vs. the No. 24 DVOA team. Seattle hasn’t played great and easily could have lost to the Rams last Thursday, but the extra rest should be plenty against Carolina. The Panthers are also No. 24 in yards per play, while the Seahawks are No. 2. There is just nothing in the numbers that supports Carolina here.
BILLS (-1.5) over Eagles
The Eagles are playing for seeding, while the Bills are fighting for their lives. I’ll take Josh Allen with a chip on his shoulder in this week’s game of the week. The Bills are second-best in yards per play (6.0 YPP), so they should really be able to test Philadelphia’s elite group. It’s the No. 6 offense (DVOA) vs. the No. 4 defense (DVOA). What a treat; the Bills win by a field goal.
Bears (+3) over 49ERS
The Bears have been pulling out late games all season but don’t let that distract you from the game we’re betting on Sunday night. Chicago has the 49ers beat just about everywhere besides running back and tight end. My model actually makes them a favorite here. Is it the Caleb Williams coming out party again on primetime?
MONDAY
Rams 7.5 over FALCONS
The spread is dead-on according to my model, but do I dare bring up Kirk Cousins in primetime? Cousins is 13-20 in primetime, including 4-10 on “Monday Night Football.” He was 0-9 on “MNF” at one point before righting the ship a bit. Still, the Rams are too good to back the Cousins Express.
Last week: 8-6-1
Season: 105-109-5
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
