The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s NFL Week 18 slate.
SUNDAY
GIANTS (+3.5) over Cowboys
It pains me to say it, but the Giants are going to beat the Cowboys and get stuck with a pick outside the top five. Perhaps this is Jerry Jones’ diabolical plan to ruin the Giants’ draft position, as Dak Prescott looks likely to be on pitch count on Sunday. Jaxson Dart and the Giants win a meaningful game for the future of the team, but fans will want to vomit when they see the score.
BILLS (-6.5) over Jets
The line has come down substantially, and while the Bills don’t have a ton to play for on Sunday, they should still be taking it somewhat seriously. Buffalo is undoubtedly looking to avoid the No. 7 seed in the AFC, and a win would lock in the No. 6 seed and could put them as high as No. 5 with a bit of help. The Jets probably wouldn’t beat the Indiana Hoosiers by more than two scores this week anyway.
FALCONS (-3.5 ) over Saints
The Saints have covered five straight against the spread, something I’ve been on all year dating back to when Spencer Rattler was starting at quarterback. The last time that these two faced off was Nov. 23 against this same Falcons squad, where the Saints did not cover in a 24-10 loss. Atlanta has played well enough of late, and the Saints are still No. 28 in DVOA while the Falcons are No. 18. This is the right time to sell on New Orleans without Chris Olave.
BENGALS (-7.5) over Browns
The Browns are a different team on the road than they are at home. Cleveland is putting up just 4.1 yards per play on the road, the worst in the NFL. And while they are the No. 3 defense in overall YPP allowed, on the road, they are significantly worse (5.1 YPP allowed on the road vs. 4.3 YPP allowed at home). The Bengals, while they are eliminated, appear to be upset with ownership and are taking it out on the opponents.
VIKINGS (-7.5 ) over Packers
The Packers don’t care about this game at all, and the vibes were bad before they decided to start Clayton Tune this week. Tune threw an interception last week against the Ravens in very limited work, something that should be music to Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ ears. Flores and the Vikings are looking to put good game film out there, and Tune is going to be their toy to jobs next year.
Titans (+13.5) over JAGUARS
The Titans are playing well enough to back them against a solid Jaguars team as nearly two touchdown underdogs. The Titans are averaging 5.3 yards per play over their last three games, a significant improvement from the 4.4 they’re averaging this season. The Jaguars are riding high, but 13.5 is too big a number in this matchup.
TEXANS (-10.5) over Colts
The Colts are down to quarterback No. 4 on the season after Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, and Philip Rivers were given their walking papers. In steps Riley Leonard, who wasn’t much of a passer with Notre Dame and will have the Texans’ pass rush in his face for the whole afternoon. Don’t be surprised if backup Seth Henigan gets some action while serving as the team’s backup. Rivers is the emergency third-string signal caller, so you’re not expecting any competent play on Sunday.
BRONCOS (-12.5) over Chargers
Justin Herbert is out after leading the league in quarterback hits this year. Los Angeles has given up hope of avoiding the No. 7 seed, which would put the Chargers on a date against the Patriots. Denver locks up the No. 1 seed with a win, and given the Chargers are sitting most of their starters, I think L.A. will roll over against Denver with tons on the line.
BEARS (-3) over Lions
Everyone hates the Bears. We know the Lions will take this game seriously, but the Bears will too, and their personnel is playing the best football they have all season. The Bears are averaging 6.4 YPP in their last three games, good for fourth-best in the NFL. The Lions rank third in that area for the season, but is down to 23rd in their last three games. Detroit is playing bad football and not worth your money.
Chiefs (-5.5) over RAIDERS
This is a tank off between two teams that couldn’t care less on Sunday. Las Vegas wants the No. 1 overall pick and have gone to extreme lengths to make that a reality. Kansas City appears to be taking this game at least somewhat seriously on defense. The Chiefs are allowing 4.8 YPP in their last three games, good for No. 5 in the NFL and about the only respectable thing about this game.
Cardinals (+7.5) over RAMS
By the time this game kicks off, the Rams may have nothing to play for as far as seeding. If the 49ers beat the Seahawks at home on Saturday night, Los Angeles will be locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC.
So perhaps the Rams want to give Matthew Stafford a shot at the NFL MVP award and pad his stats, but I don’t expect most of their regulars to play a full game. Cardinals eventually cover even if they go down big in the first half.
PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Dolphins
The Dolphins have played pretty well recently, but the Patriots are looking to grab the No. 1 seed, as the Broncos will be playing at the same time against the Chargers. Drake Maye will need a strong performance to keep the NFL MVP award wrestled away from Matthew Stafford. They should be looking for another blowout during their impossibly easy schedule.
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EAGLES (-4) over Commanders
The Eagles ran up the score against the Commanders last time they played, and if they had a more competent quarterback, I’d be fine targeting them here. But four points is too low of a spread on the road with Josh Johnson starting.
My model has the Eagles favored by a touchdown and while there is concern about how seriously Philadelphia will take this game, they should use this game to prepare for the playoffs rather than punt it to next week.
STEELERS +3.5 over Ravens
TJ Watt returns for the Steelers in this winner-take-all matchup in Pittsburgh. Frankly, if Tyler Huntley was starting for the Ravens, I’d be more intrigued by Baltimore, but it will be Lamar Jackson who is clearly less than 100 percent.
It’s the same reason the Buccaneers have been impossible to target the last few weeks: their quarterbacks aren’t healthy. Aaron Rodgers is going to the playoffs and John Harbaugh’s seat just got hotter.
Last week: 5-6
Season: 110-115-5
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
