It’s Week 5 of the NFL season, and I’m back with three more player props for the Sunday slate.
I’m 8-1 on my NFL prop picks this season, and I’m looking to find more winners this week by using my trusted strategy of targeting the Commanders and Colts pass defenses.
Amari Cooper Over 49.5 receiving yards (-120, DraftKings)
It’s been a brutal start to the season for the Browns’ offense, which ranks 31st in EPA/play.
Amari Cooper has been a significant culprit with a league-leading eight drops.
He had just seven last season, and he should get that cleaned up moving forward.
Cooper caught an 82-yard bomb for a touchdown last week, but it was called back on a penalty.
If that play stood, I doubt we would be seeing a line of 49.5 for Cooper this week, given the enticing matchup.
The Commanders rank 30th in pass defense DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and have allowed four receivers to finish with 50-plus yards this season.
Cooper still ranks seventh in the NFL with a 46.8 percent air-yard share and 18th with a 25 percent target share.
He’s due for some positive regression with a 43.2 percent catch rate, ranking second-to-last of all receivers with at least 25 targets this season.
Deshaun Watson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+170, DraftKings)
Watson should be working on two straight games with two-plus passing touchdowns, and he played well last week, finishing with an 88.5 passing grade from Pro Football Focus — his highest mark in a Browns jersey.
The Commanders have allowed 16 of 21 opposing quarterbacks to finish with two-plus passing touchdowns.
That list includes names such as Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Tyrod Taylor and Desmond Ridder.
Tight end David Njoku is also expected to return this week, giving the Browns another big-bodied threat to lean on around the goal line.
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 50.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM)
The rookie has seen his involvement in the Jaguars’ offense increase weekly, culminating in a season-high 33.3 percent first-read target share last week.
That sets up incredibly well for a matchup against the Colts, who rank outside the top 20 against the pass in seemingly every advanced metric.
The Colts run Cover 3 at a 43.1 percent rate, the fourth-highest in the NFL, and Thomas has crushed Cover 3 this season.
He ranks 10th in the league with 3.97 yards per route run against that coverage type.
Trevor Lawrence also has seen his best production against that coverage, ranking seventh in highly accurate throw rate against Cover 3 and 32nd against all other coverage types.
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Indianapolis has been crushed by WR1s this season. George Pickens (7-113), DJ Moore (8-78), Rome Odunze (6-112-1), Romeo Doubs (3-62), and Nico Collins (6-117) have all feasted.
The Colts have also suffered a slew of injuries on defense — including top cornerback Kenny Moore, who could miss Sunday’s game.
I expected this line to open in at least the mid-50s but began at 49.5 before quickly moving to 51.5.
Given Thomas’ elite underlying metrics and the exceptional matchup against a Cover 3-heavy, injured Colts defense that has bled yards to wide receivers this year, there is tons of value there.
Keep an eye on the weather report, because wind and rain could affect the Jacksonville passing attack.
A 90 percent chance of rain with 10-15 mph winds is forecast.
