A second poll released in a week shows President Donald Trump with an approval rating at or above 50 percent. There are also polls showing the Republicans closing in on Democrats in the generic ballot, which serve as a barometer for how the midterm elections might go.
On Thursday, Trafalgar released a poll of 1,084 likely voters showing Trump with a 51 percent job approval rating and a 48 percent disapproval rating.
Five days later, a Harvard-Harris poll of likely voters places Trump’s job approval rating at 50 percent, while 47 percent disapprove. Among registered voters, Trump sits at 46 percent approve, and 49 percent disapprove.
Both polls were taken entirely after the president’s State of the Union address last Tuesday.
The Harvard-Harris poll also shows the generic ballot tied at 50 percent between Democrats and Republicans, an improvement for the GOP compared to last month when, in this same poll, Democrats enjoyed a four-point lead, 52 to 48 percent.
The Economist/YouGov poll also shows a shift towards the GOP on the generic ballot. What was a seven-point Democrat Party lead last month (47 to 40 percent), is now a four-point lead (45 to 41 percent).
None of these polls reflect the weekend bombing of Iran.
In the RealClearPolitics poll of generic ballot polls, Democrats lead by an average of 4.4 points, 47.2 percent to 42.8 percent. Prior to the State of the Union, Democrats led by an average of 5.2 percent.
In the RealClearPolitics poll of Trump job approval polls, Trump sits at 43.2 percent approve and 54.5 percent disapprove. That’s a gap of 11.3 points.
Before the State of the Union, Trump averaged a 42.2 percent approval rating and a 55.8 percent disapproval rating, a 13.5-point gap.
Granted, these are marginal movements that could simply reflect the usual poll fluctuations, but before the State of the Union, it appeared as though everything was headed in a negative direction for both Trump and the GOP.
My guess is that Trump being able to lay out his accomplishments and vision for the future without any kind of media filter did him a lot of good last Tuesday. It really was a terrific State of the Union address. What’s more, in politics, especially national politics, contrasting yourself with your opponent is hugely important. And so, when Democrats refused to stand in support of American citizens over illegal aliens or stand in support of ending the “gender-affirming” mutilation of children, the contrast between common sense and crazy was as stark as it gets.
We have eight months and a gazillion news cycles between today and the midterm election. By that time, the State of the Union and Iran will likely be forgotten. So, anything can happen and will happen.
My overall point in highlighting these numbers and the slight movement towards Trump and the GOP is not to say that Republicans will hold the House and U.S. Senate in November. My point is that a mere ten days ago, the corporate media and #GOPSmartSet were certain Republicans were doomed in 2026 because of events we cannot even recall today.
No one knows what will happen in November, especially the “experts.”
