Bad news for Democrats in the latest poll out of Maine from the far-left New York Times… Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins is up three points over Troy Jackson, the candidate Democrats installed after their preferred candidate, Graham “Nazi Taooo” Platner, was forced out by the Democrat establishment over sexual abuse scandals.
The Times polled 619 likely voters in Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire between September 15 and 22 and found Collins leading Jackson 49 to 46 percent.
Back in June, Collins was losing to the Democrat Party’s favorite Nazi Tatoo Guy by two points, 49 to 47 percent. Today, she is up by three.
Maybe Democrats pulling the guy who won the primary and replacing him with someone Democrat primary voters did not choose was not such a good idea???
This is the second poll to show Collins in the lead. A Quantus Insight poll taken around the same time has Collins up by one point, 47 to 46 percent.
Collins at 49 percent is very good news for her. First off, in her previous election campaign, she outperformed the polls by double digits. Secondly, an incumbent close to 50 percent is in pretty good shape. After all, all you need to win is 50 percent +1, and she is a known quantity.
Of note is the fact that the New York Times weighted the poll to reflect an electorate where former Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump 52 to 41 percent. Well, in Maine, she only beat Trump by 6.9 points. What’s more, in 2024, the Maine polling greatly underestimated Trump’s support. The polls had a range of victory for Kamala from nine to 17 points.
A Kamala +4 weighting makes even less sense in Michigan, where Trump won by 1.4 points in 2024.
In other words, in Michigan, the New York Times believes there will be a 5.4-point swing to Democrats in the upcoming midterms. Well, the Times’ poll shows Egyptian-American Muslim and Democrat Michigan U.S. Senate nominee Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed (aka Abdul El-Sayed) ahead by only five points, 49-45 percent, even with that projected 5.4-point swing.
Currently, in the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, El-Sayed leads by 2.7 points.
In 2024, polls out of Michigan underestimated support for Trump by two points.
In New Hampshire, the Times’ poll has Democrat Chris Pappas beating Republican John Sununu by five points, 50 to 45 percent. Trump lost in 2024 by 2.8 points, and polls there have him losing by almost five points.
While I won’t fall into a trap here by predicting any outcomes, it’s still worth pointing out two things: 1) For as long as I’ve been monitoring polls, pollsters have consistently underestimated Republican voters, especially in the age of Trump, and 2) most of the midterm polling is based on the assumption (which is what weighting is) that a whole lot of Trump voters will not come out and vote.
We shall see.
