Nuggets vs. Clippers: Can Nikola Jokić and Co. fend off LA? Series keys, schedule and prediction

The Western Conference’s fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets will take on the fifth-seeded L.A. Clippers in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. The two franchises last squared off in the postseason in 2020, in the Walt Disney World bubble; Denver came back from a 3-1 deficit to win a seven-game, second-round thriller.

What we know about the Nuggets

No matter what else might be going on — like, say, firing their head coach and general manager a week before the playoffs — they still have the best basketball player in the world.

Nikola Jokić just wrapped up perhaps the finest individual season we’ve ever seen, joining Russell Westbrook and Oscar Robertson as only the third player ever to average a triple-double. He leads a Nuggets squad that finished fourth in offensive efficiency, and that won three straight after lead assistant David Adelman took over for the ousted Michael Malone to secure home-court advantage in Round 1 — important for a team that’s gone 14-4 at Ball Arena over the last two postseasons.

As has long been the case, the Nuggets’ fate rests with the play of their starting lineup — and especially with the play of Jamal Murray. When Jokić has shared the floor with Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun this season, Denver has outscored opponents by 12.8 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions — one of the best marks of any big-minutes lineup.

Shaky depth marked by volatility and inconsistency — Peyton Watson’s 3-point shot, Westbrook’s late-game decision-making, the backup center minutes, etc. — and a porous, 21st-ranked defense can make the Nuggets feel vulnerable. But hey: maybe being vulnerable ain’t so bad.

“People say we are vulnerable, but the beast is always most dangerous when they’re vulnerable,” Jokić said after the Nuggets won their first game post-Malone. “So maybe [the firing] woke up the beast.”

What we know about the Clippers

They lost Paul George, spent most of the first half of the season without Kawhi Leonard, and still won 50 games with a top-eight net rating. This team is tough.

The Clippers feature one of the NBA’s nastiest defenses — third in points allowed per possession, first in defensive rebounding rate, eighth in opponent turnover rate, top-10 in limiting both shots at the rim and corner 3s — fueled by a phalanx of long-limbed stoppers and backstopped by 7-footer Ivica Zubac. For most of the season, that smothering defense propped up a just-good-enough offense carried by James Harden (just under 23 points and nine assists per game in yet another All-Star campaign) and Norman Powell (21.8 points per game on 48/42/80 shooting splits, a career year).

And then Leonard became fully operational … and things got very interesting.

Since first hitting the 30-minute mark in early February, Leonard has averaged 24.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.9 steals in 35.5 minutes per game, shooting 51% from the field, 44% from 3-point range and 83% from the foul line. The Clippers have a top-five offense in that span. They’re 26-11 — a 58-win pace — with Leonard in the lineup; they’ve outscored opponents by a blistering 16.5 points-per-100 when Leonard, Harden and Powell share the floor. They enter the postseason having won 18 of their last 21, with two of the three losses coming to the Thunder and Cavaliers by a combined seven points.

The defensive infrastructure, the Harden-Zubac pick-and-roll, Powell’s sweet-shooting off-ball work: that’s all still there. And now, the Clippers also have something pretty damn close to peak Kawhi, too.

That sounds like a recipe for a deep postseason run … except for the part where they draw the three-time MVP in Round 1.

Head-to-head

The teams split their four meetings, two games apiece; they haven’t played since early January.

Your mileage may vary on how much we can take from those matchups. Terance Mann, Kevin Porter Jr., Mo Bamba and Bones Hyland all played rotation minutes for the Clippers in at least one game; none of them are still on L.A.’s roster. Also, y’know, Denver has a new head coach now.

Jokić missed the Nuggets’ January win, but in the three games he did play, he was unsurprisingly dominant, averaging 28.3 points and 10 rebounds per game, shooting 54% from the field and 52% from deep. One noteworthy element, though: He dished just 17 assists versus 15 turnovers against the Clippers.

Lue tried to vary the looks he threw at Jokić — playing him straight up with Zubac, having wings dig down or double from up top on his drives, bringing doubles from the nail on post-ups, springing traps on ball screens, etc.:

The variety of approaches, and the skill with which L.A. executed them, got Jokić sometimes, but not often enough: Denver still outscored the Clippers by 5.3 points-per-100 with the big fella on the floor. That’s about half of the Nuggets’ full-season net rating in Jokić minutes, though, and there’s the opportunity for the Clips: Keep it close in Jokić’s minutes, use your superior depth to win his rest periods, and you’ve got a better shot of taking Denver down.

Especially when we consider the other “your mileage may vary” aspect of the regular-season matchups — that Kawhi didn’t play in any of them.

Matchup to watch

The Clippers vs. Jamal Murray

L.A. can’t “stop” Jokić — or even really slow him down. What they can do, though, is try to limit the fallout by cutting off Denver’s other scorers. That means Murray.

Denver went 24-11 when Murray scored 20 or more points this season, and just 17-15 when he didn’t. Murray also just missed six straight games with a right hamstring injury; he returned for the final two games of the regular season, but shot just 11-for-28 from the floor in them.

Maybe the six days between the regular-season finale and Game 1 will give Murray enough rest and practice time to reach top form by tipoff. But Lue’s going to make him prove it.

Expect Murray to see a lot of Kris Dunn, an elite point-of-attack menace — tied for 10th in the NBA in steals and 17th in deflections per game, second in defensive estimated plus-minus — who limited Murray to just three points on four shots across 59 partial possessions during the regular season. The Clips also have plenty of other big, long options to throw at Murray off the bench: Derrick Jones Jr., Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons, maybe Nicolas Batum (who did yeoman’s work against Jalen Brunson last spring).

Murray’s trials will continue on the defensive end, where he primarily guarded Powell during the regular season. How hard will Lue hunt Murray? Will L.A. test out that hamstring by forcing him to chase Powell around off-ball screens, or dial up a few extra Powell-Zubac pick-and-rolls just to make him work? If Murray gets stuck on Harden, do we see more of Leonard as a screener, aimed at forcing a switch that allows Kawhi to take Murray down to the block, betting that every bump and bang will pay dividends late?

(Also: While Dunn’s probably the safest spot to “hide” whichever defender Denver most wants to protect, he has also finished more possessions as the roll man in the pick-and-roll this season than he had in his entire previous eight-year career. Don’t be surprised if Lue looks to vaporize that hiding spot by having him set picks for Harden or Kawhi to drag his man into the action.)

Given how vital Murray’s complementary scoring and two-man game connection with Jokić is to Denver reaching its ceiling, you can bet Lue will throw the kitchen sink at him. How well Murray handles it will go a long way toward determining the Nuggets’ chances.

Crunch-time lineups

Denver Nuggets

Unsurprisingly, given that it was the NBA’s seventh-most-frequently-used lineup overall, Jokić-Murray-Gordon-Porter-Braun also finished fifth in total fourth-quarter minutes, and was Denver’s top fourth-quarter unit. It blitzed opponents by 39 points in 74 minutes — just under 19 points-per-100. Dance with the one who brung you, y’know?

If Adelman feels like he needs another ball-handler, it’ll be interesting to see which one he picks. In a tight game against Sacramento last Wednesday, he closed with youngster Jalen Pickett over the veteran Westbrook; two nights later, against Memphis, he rolled with Russ for the entire fourth quarter, putting Porter on the bench in crunch time in favor of a lineup that had played a grand total of nine minutes to that point.

L.A. Clippers

Since Jan. 1, Leonard-Harden-Zubac has been L.A.’s most frequently used fourth-quarter three-man group, and they’ve led the Clips in “clutch” minutes. Powell is tied with Harden for the team-high in clutch minutes per game in that span; overall, L.A. has hammered teams with that quartet on the court.

Beyond them, though, Lue has lots of mix-and-match options: Dunn to guard on the ball; Jones Jr., Coffey, Simmons and Batum for more length on the wing; resurgent trade-deadline acquisition Bogdan Bogdanovic (averaging 11.4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 25 minutes per game on 47/42/88 shooting splits with the Clippers) to add shooting and playmaking. Whatever Denver throws at the Clips, Lue will be ready with a response. Except, perhaps, for the biggest question the Nuggets can ask; the one for whom nobody really has an answer.

Prediction: Nuggets in seven

This version of the Clippers absolutely can win this series, but this version of Jokić isn’t outgunned against anybody. That, plus home court, tilts me slightly in Denver’s favor.

Series betting odds

(Via BetMGM)

Denver Nuggets (+105)

Los Angeles Clippers (-125)

Series schedule (all times Eastern)

Game 1: Sat., April 19 @ Denver (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Game 2: Mon., April 21 @ Denver (10 p.m., TNT)

Game 3: Thu., April 24 @ L.A. (TBD, NBA TV)

Game 4: Sat., April 26 @ L.A. (6 p.m., TNT)

*Game 5: Tue., April 29 @ Denver (TBD)

*Game 6: Thu., May 1 @ L.A. (TBD)

*Game 7: Sat., May 3 @ Denver (TBD)

*if necessary