More Pennsylvania voters say they will “definitely” or “probably” support former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the latest Monmouth survey released less than one week from the election.
The survey found that, among all registered voters surveyed, 47 percent said they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for Trump, while 46 percent said the same for Harris. Another four percent said they would “definitely” or “probably” choose other.
Overall, the survey observed that Trump’s victory lies in low propensity voters.
Via Monmouth:
Harris does best among high-propensity voters, while Trump’s path to victory relies on turning out enough low-propensity voters. The current state of the U.S. Senate race is a little better for Democrats, but not by much.
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The current results represent statistically insignificant movement from Monmouth’s Pennsylvania poll taken five weeks ago. Support for Harris has decreased nominally by one percentage point from 48% in September while her definite support ticked up from 40% to 42%. Trump’s total support has increased slightly by 2 points from 45%, with his definite support going from 38% to 42%. At the opposite end of the spectrum the number of voters who have definitely ruled out a vote for Trump increased slightly from 46% to 49% and the definitely not number for Harris went up by a bit more, going from 44% to 50%.
Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University Polling Institute, reiterated in a statement that Trump’s path lies with these low propensity voters.
“Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania is by turning out low-propensity voters. In a normal election this may be difficult to do. For many, their lack of participation is due to an underlying distrust in government itself,” he observed.
The survey was taken October 24-28, among 824 Pennsylvania registered voters. It has a +/- 3.8 percent margin of error.
Republicans across the country have been keenly aware of this, however, and some of them are doing something about it. In September, Breitbart News Saturday spoke to Cliff Maloney, who heads up the Pennsylvania Chase, quite literally tasked with chasing ballots in the Keystone State. They aim to motivate voters, “particularly in light of the fact that 141,000 Republicans who requested mail-in ballots in 2020 never turned them in,” as Breitbart News reported at the time.
“I think when you look at that compared to the fact we lost by 80,000, it’s like, yeah, we just got to solve that problem,” he said, explaining that they have 120 full-time ballot chasers.
“We are going to low-propensity Republicans, those that are unlikely to vote, and we are asking them if they will request a mail-in ballot. We’re not going to Election-Day voters; they’re likely voters. We’re going to unlikely voters that happen to be Republican, and we’re asking them to request,” he said, explaining that their strategy would change once ballots went out, as they would then target voters aligned with them to get them committed to turning in their ballots.
Maloney stressed the importance for Republicans to play the game to successfully close the gap in Pennsylvania and deliver a victory for former President Donald Trump.
Wednesday’s RealClearPolitics average of polls showed Trump up by an average of 0.6 percent in the state.
