LANGHORNE, Pa. — Keystone State polling shows a Senate race that was once approaching blowout territory is now too close to call, with blue-collar voters seeking change downballot.
And the ramifications may be major for Donald Trump and the GOP.
A CNN/SSRS survey of 785 registered voters reveals Republican Dave McCormick is now tied with Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey.
It’s the latest positive sign for McCormick, a West Point graduate and combat veteran whose opponent blitzed the state with summer ads questioning his deep ties to Pennsylvania and blasting his time as a hedge-fund executive.
Another ad Casey ran criticized McCormick’s investments in China, though the three-term senator also has a small stake in the same Chinese legal-fentanyl manufacturer.
Early summer surveys showed Casey ahead at least 6 points, with some even suggesting the incumbent could win re-election by a double-digit margin.
But the momentum has moved, despite that huge ad campaign in one of the year’s most expensive races.
Both candidates have 46% support in the CNN canvass, which is the most favorable to the GOP challenger this cycle. The average poll shows a 3.4% lead for Casey, per RealClearPolitics.
McCormick’s strength in this survey comes from a number of key groups that can be mobilized ahead of the November election — and who could lead to an upset of the Democratic incumbent seeking his fourth term.
For starters, McCormick dominates with the highest-propensity voters, who are 45 years of age or older.
The challenger has a healthy 8-point lead, 51% to 43%.
He’s doing even better with 50- to 64-year-olds, taking 60% support against the incumbent.
McCormick is also the blue-collar choice in the CNN survey, with numbers comparable to Trump’s among two segments.
The Republican has 53% support among non-college-grads of all races, with Casey pulling just 38%.
Among the white respondents who didn’t graduate college, the option is even more lopsided. McCormick leads there 61% to 38%.
It’s not just educational attainment driving McCormick’s support; it’s also the feeling among many voters in the lower socioeconomic strata that they’ve been left behind by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Bob Casey.
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Among voters making less than $50,000 a year, McCormick has 48% support, 9 points above Casey and parallel with Trump’s 49% among the same group.
McCormick credited this dissatisfaction for his growing momentum at a presser Tuesday in pivotal Bucks County.
“For the 60% of Pennsylvanians who are living paycheck to paycheck, that’s not specific to party. That’s everybody — independent voters, Republicans, Democrats,” McCormick said at an Americans for Prosperity Action event. “A wide-open border, the fentanyl crisis, that’s killing Pennsylvanians. That affects everybody.”
In addition to socioeconomic cues, a gender gap is shaping the race: 55% of men back McCormick, giving him a 16-point lead, but Casey dominates 53% to 40% with female voters.
Pennsylvania Republicans, many of whom weren’t enthused by Dr. Mehmet Oz in 2022, are on board here also. McCormick has 93% of Republicans backing him, suggesting a united party in the last two months of the 2024 cycle.
