In the days before the 2024 Presidential Election, pollster Ann Selzer released a shocking poll that suggested that Kamala Harris was leading Donald Trump in Iowa by 3 percent.
President Trump handily won Iowa in 2016 and 2020, so the poll created shockwaves, especially with its curious timing.
There were hints that, perhaps, the poll was not up to par. During an interview with Mark Halperin, Selzer appeared confused over what the “R” and “D” letters referred to in polling cross tabs.
Ultimately, Selzer was 16 points off. President Trump won the state of Iowa by +13.
The poll led to premature celebrations in Democrat circles and provided a glimmer of hope for a doomed Harris campaign.
what a wild cycle!
Reddit reacts to Ann Selzer: pic.twitter.com/41ChJ0jHi0
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 13, 2024
Selzer has now announced her departure from polling, a decision she says was made before the disastrous polling debacle.
In an Op-Ed at The Des Moines Register Selzer writes:
Over 30 years of polling led to an A+ rating in Nate Silver’s analysis of pollsters’ track records of accuracy. I earned that rating in Silver’s first list, and my grade never dropped. Maybe that history of accuracy made the outlier position too comfortable.
Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.
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Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities.
******
My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy — both in my professional and my personal relationships.
When you become the laughingstock of the profession, it is time to seek “other ventures.” The Democrats won’t miss her at all. Her usefulness to them is at an end https://t.co/qWoO8L5bJ9
— Dinesh D’Souza (@DineshDSouza) November 17, 2024
Look, everyone knows Ann Selzer is a clown for the Iowa poll. We get that.
What’s worth reiterating, is that anyone who believed the poll held any significance should be ignored, they’ve completely discredited themselves. pic.twitter.com/e2qTtVaWo1
— Dave (@David_CarlsonII) November 11, 2024
