Former President Donald Trump has the edge on Vice President Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll.
The survey of 500 likely voters, published Monday, just eight days before election day, shows Trump with a 48 percent to 47 percent advantage over Harris as early voting is underway in the Badger State. Without rounding, he leads by more than a point, 48 to 46.6 percent:
Two percent are undecided, and third-party candidates earn the support of outstanding poll participants.
Moreover, 45 percent of those polled supported President Biden in 2020, 44 percent backed Trump, eight percent did not vote, and two percent voted third party.
The poll is on par with RealClearPolling’s national average, which shows a tight race with Trump slightly ahead. He led the RCP average by .3 percentage points Monday, and the average included this USA Today/Suffolk University poll.
USA Today notes that the survey found a significant gender divide, though men break for Trump at a more robust clip than women support Harris.
Of the men polled, 56 percent support the former president, while just 38 percent back Harris. Conversely, Harris has the support of 55 percent of women, while 41 percent of women prefer Trump.
Wisconsin is more critical to Harris’s pathway to victory than it is for Trump. If she forfeits Wisconsin, she needs to sweep Pennsylvania and Michigan while also picking off one of either Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina to break the 270 threshold.
And if he loses Wisconsin, he still has several pathways, including the easiest, which entails winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, which would put him precisely at 270. In the scenario where Trump loses Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, he still has a very viable pathway by carrying Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and either Arizona or Nevada.
The poll also gauged the state of the Senate race, finding Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Republican businessman Eric Hovde are neck and neck.
Baldwin has a slight edge with 46 percent support versus Hovde’s 44 percent. Third-party candidate Thomas Leager draws two percent, and seven percent are undecided.
The USA Today/Suffolk University survey was conducted October 20-23 and has a ± 4.4. percentage point margin of error.
