The 2024 NFL season kicks off with a bang Thursday night as the Chiefs begin their title defense by hosting the Ravens in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game.
While Baltimore out-gained Kansas City in yardge last January, 336-319, it couldn’t overcome three costly turnovers that allowed the Chiefs to dominate the time of possession by 15 minutes.
Although each season comes with a bit of roster turnover, there are still enough familiar faces on both sides to make some informed decisions in the player props market.
Here are two of my favorites for Thursday night’s NFL Kickoff game in Kansas City that when parlayed give us pretty decent plus-money odds.
Ravens vs. Chiefs odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | +3 (-118) | +125 | o47 (-108) |
| Chiefs | -3 (-102) | -148 | u47 (-112) |
Ravens vs. Chiefs same-game parlay picks
- First leg: Patrick Mahomes over 25.5 completions (-110)
- Second leg: Travis Kelce over 57.5 receiving yards (-125)
Parlay odds: +170 via DraftKings
First leg: Patrick Mahomes over 25.5 completions
Kansas City has been often criticized for a lack of quality wide receivers, yet it went on to win a second straight Super Bowl last season.
During the offseason, the Chiefs’ front office addressed that shortcoming by signing Marquise Brown to a one-year deal and drafting rookie Xavier Worthy.
While Brown won’t play in Week 1 due to a shoulder injury, there’s a clear intent on how the Chiefs want to operate this season.
“Coach (Andy) Reid has gone back to my old days. He’s forcing me to push the ball down the field,” quarterback Patrick Mahomes said this summer. “If I don’t, he throws little jabs at me like, ‘Oh, you want to throw the checkdown here? “I’m like, ‘I got you, coach; we’re going to push it.”’
The Chiefs will likely have more success moving the ball down the field through the air than on the ground against the Ravens’ front seven on Thursday night.
Even with Brown sidelined, Mahomes still has enough weapons for a big passing day.
Second leg: Travis Kelce over 57.5 receiving yards
Despite all the incomings and outgoings in the Kansas City offense, the one mainstay has been Travis Kelce.
The tight end failed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards last season for the first time in eight years but still finished as the Chiefs’ leading pass-catcher (984 receiving yards). However, had he not been inactive for two games, he almost assuredly would’ve kept his streak alive.
Kelce didn’t play in last year’s year’s season-opening loss to the Lions in which the Chiefs looked a flat and could have used some of the tight end’s infectious energy on the field.
Kelce has already batted away any notion of a reduced workload as he enters his 12th season.
“I probably wouldn’t listen to them (the Chiefs) if they did,” Kelce said.
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One of his strengths is finding the spots in an opponent’s defense where he can cut his route short and make himself a target for Mahomes.
He torched the Ravens in the AFC Championship for 116 yards on 11 catches and has gone over 57.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games and seven of his last 10.
Given Brown’s status for Week 1, I’m even more bullish on Kelce going over this number.
