A view of a burned-out home after the Eaton Fire swept through Altadena, California, on Feb. 2, 2025. (Ali Matin / Middle East Images – AFP via Getty Images)
By Johnathan Jones August 9, 2025 at 9:30am
30The official death toll from the devastating Los Angeles County wildfires earlier this year stands at 31.
But new research says that count “may barely scratch the surface,” according to a report by SFGate.
A study published Aug. 6 in the Journal of the American Medical Association estimates that 440 excess deaths occurred during the same time horizon.
That figure is more than 14 times the official count.
Researchers analyzed all-cause mortality data from a four-week window starting Jan. 5, when the fires began.
The fires torched more than 12,000 homes, businesses, and other structures from Altadena to the Pacific Palisades, including historic Hollywood properties.
Study co-author Andrew Stokes, an epidemiologist at Boston University, said the findings show the blazes likely caused far more deaths than published counts would indicate.
“The official estimates are barely scraping the surface,” Stokes told SFGate. “There’s likely to be a massive undercount when it comes to wildfire deaths.”
The study grouped the deaths into three categories: direct deaths from fire exposure, deaths that might have been caused by exacerbated existing health conditions, and deaths due to disrupted medical and mental health services.
Stokes noted that indirect deaths can come from delays in dialysis, interrupted cancer treatments, or even elevated stress and depression.
The study ultimately suggested current death tallies might be way off and that secondary deaths should be considered.
“It’s very hard for a medical examiner or an attending physician to know the circumstances,” Stokes said.
He added that many potential victims could later be counted in cancer or cardiorespiratory data.
Older adults were especially impacted, according to the study, due to mobility challenges and preexisting conditions.
The city’s response to the fires has drawn immense scrutiny and criticism.
Firefighters ran out of water in some areas due to outdated infrastructure and a key reservoir being offline.
Los Angeles Democratic Mayor Karen Bass had slashed $17.6 million from the fire department’s budget despite warnings from Chief Kristin Crowley, whom she later fired.
Bass was in Ghana when the fires began and was perceived as ill-prepared to address the disaster upon her return.
Johnathan Jones is a journalist, novelist, and media analyst with experience as a reporter, editor, and producer across radio, television, and digital platforms. Follow him on X: @misterjkjones
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