Republicans are in pole position to take back the Senate majority for the first time in four years after a widely respected analysis shifted a key race toward the GOP candidate Thursday.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report assessed the Montana contest between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and challenger Tim Sheehy as “lean Republican.”
The contests for two other Democrat-held seats, in Ohio and Michigan, were listed as toss-ups.
If all three races break the Republicans’ way, the GOP would begin the 119th Congress with 53 members of the upper chamber, providing a key check on Democrats should Kamala Harris win the White House and her party regain the House.
“After almost 18 years in Washington, Montanans are fed up with Two-Faced Tester pretending to be a moderate in Montana while voting with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in DC,” National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokeswoman Maggie Abboud said in a statement.
The announcement came on the heels of a poll out last week that showed Tester, seeking a fourth term, trailing Sheehy by six percentage points (51%-45%) in a head-to-head matchup.
When third-party candidates were included in the AARP survey, Tester dropped to 41% support, eight percentage points behind Sheehy.
Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate, but Republicans are expected to have at least 50 members in the next Congress, with Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice heavily favored to succeed retiring independent Joe Manchin.
Tester, 68, has been re-elected twice despite Montana voting for Republican presidential candidates by double digits in three consecutive elections.
Other Senate races have also shifted in the GOP’s favor this year.
The Cook Political Report changed its rating for the race between Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Republican candidate Bernie Moreno to “toss-up” in March.
A competition between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) for the open seat vacated by Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) has been considered a “toss-up” since July by the polling group.
Tester and Brown have both distanced themselves from Vice President Kamala Harris in their re-election fights, and both declined to speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last month.
Slotkin did appear and delivered a patriotic address to the delegates, focusing on her past experience as a CIA officer and Pentagon official in the Obama administration prior to her election to Congress in 2018.
Tester and Brown had also called on President Biden to abandon his 2024 re-election effort before the 81-year-old bowed out July 21.
In other Senate contests, Republicans Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas are favored to be re-elected Nov. 5, along with prominent colleagues Josh Hawley of Missouri, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and John Barrasso of Wyoming.
Democratic Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin are all favored to keep their battleground state seats, while Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is forecast to hold off Republican Kari Lake in the battle for the seat held by departing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
Should Republicans retake the Senate, they will need to vote in a new leader after Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced he will retire from the position following the general election after nearly two decades.
If Democrats remain in charge, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has promised to pass an aggressive policy agenda — and to potentially eliminate the legislative filibuster, a procedural rule that requires 60 votes to end debate on most proposals.
Neither the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee nor Tester’s campaign immediately responded to a request for comment.
