The secret is out. Almost all bettors are aware of a specific NBA betting trend. But has the market adjusted enough? Or maybe too much?
The newly-formed NBA Cup has clearly generated a more competitive atmosphere than conventional regular-season games. That has translated to higher defensive effort and fewer foul calls, causing Unders to cash at a noticeable rate.
As the teams descend on Las Vegas, we absolutely must handicap the games through that lens. Including last year, nine of the 11 quarterfinal, semifinal and championship games have cashed the Under.
Rockets vs. Thunder NBA Cup odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rockets | +6 (-110) | +195 | o212.5 (-110) |
| Thunder | -6 (-110) | -238 | u212.5 (-110) |
On Saturday, the Houston Rockets face the Oklahoma City Thunder for the third time this season. The previous totals closed 220 and 221.5 with both games flying Over by at least 11 points. In a vacuum, one would assume the next meeting warrants a higher posted total.
However, the NBA Cup factor supersedes all instincts and norms. Oddsmakers opened at 215.5, even though the two previous meetings landed at 233 and 235.
Nonetheless, professionals still bet it Under, moving it to 212.5, as of Friday afternoon. That is a remarkable adjustment.
“My initial thought was that these totals were flying Under due to shooting variance,” The Ringer betting expert Raheem Palmer told Only Players, highlighting the brutal 3-point percentages in those specific games. “However, it was clear that officials were letting teams play a bit more physical throughout the quarterfinal rounds.”
Veteran sports bettors focus more on numbers than they do teams. At some point, there is value on the Over. But there’s also a chance the total has not adjusted enough, still offering value on the Under.
“I feel late to the party not betting the Under on the opener. But I’m also hesitant because I rely on my model so much,” Palmer said, sharing that he is currently undecided because his computer model projects 214.
I am similarly torn. The market has clearly adjusted. It’s hard to ignore the 9-2 trend when there is a tangible reason, rather than just a small sample size’s randomness.
Betting on the NBA?
- Check out the best NBA betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on basketball
- Get the latest NBA Championship odds
- Use the North Carolina betting apps
But these two teams literally just played high-scoring games in the 230’s with modest shooting percentages. Can the NBA Cup really impact the output by more than 20 points?
I believe it can but I am not convcined that will occur. Last year’s semis had final scores with 222 and 247 points. They only fell Under because the posted totals were astronomically high.
This game is 212.5, so everything is relative.
I am not crazy about writing 450 words on why I am not betting on a game, but I think the unknown and variance reflect an ideal scenario for in-game wagering.
If I see the officiating resemble anything like Houston’s 91-90 quarterfinal win over the Golden State Warriors, then I will immediately bet on the Under.
That rock fight only had 25 combined fouls and 19 free throw attempts — well below league averages.
STRATEGY: Live bet the Under based on early foul trends — Opens 212.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the sports betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
